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April 16, 2003
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through March 2003. Also, a look at the targeted fed funds rate versus CPI. Will the current negative “real” funds rate overstimulate the economy?
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April 15, 2003
Factors that Influence 10-Year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities’ (TIPS) Breakeven Inflation Rate In this study, we look to objectively determine the trend of the TIPS Breakeven Inflation Rate, and construct a model that incorporates four...
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April 8, 2003
How To Measure The Dollar In order to determine the health of the dollar, it is necessary to find a measure that reveals its fundamental value, aside from geo-political hype. In an ideal world, it should be a measure that determines the general trend...
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March 28, 2003
Mutual Fund Flows Update Equity Levels Were At The Public’s Breakeven Level Heading Into March: Decision Time For Stock Fund Investors Tables updated through February 28, 2003 with data released March 27, 2003. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond...
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March 19, 2003
March 2003 Presentation Package Presentation package used in a conference call on March 19, 2003.
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March 6, 2003
Perception vs. Reality: Will Everything You Know About This War Be Wrong, Too? Market perceptions and actual realities are not the same thing. For the markets to have a volatile reaction, or start a new/different long-term trend, reality must diverge...
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February 10, 2003
What is the Proper Level for Interest Rates? This report attempts to answer that question using a mathematical “fair value” calculation comprised of nominal GDP (a measure of real growth and inflation) and Federal debt (a measure of...
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January 8, 2003
Accounting For Pensions: The “Real” Problem The current funding problems of pension plans are primarily a by-product of historically low interest rates (although the falling stock market has been a factor, it has not been the primary...
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December 31, 2002
A Primer on the Fed Model Is the stock market overvalued or undervalued? One way we can answer this question is by using the Fed’s valuation model for stocks, comparing the earnings yield of an index (the inverse of the P/E ratio) to the yield...
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December 30, 2002
Is Fannie Mae’s Duration Gap Becoming an Issue Again? With only two days left in the month (year) and very thin markets, any further drop in interest rates could get Fannie Mae’s hedging operation active and potentially produce an...
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December 18, 2002
Has Fannie Mae Become a “Volatility Time Bomb?” We believe Fannie Mae is a volatility time bomb. Once interest rates move, based on the current market/economic situation at that time, and Fannie Mae’s duration gap gets close to...
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December 1, 2002
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through October 31, 2002 with data released November 26, 2002. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds.