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May 14, 2004
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through April 2004. Also, does the market believe a secular change in inflation is upon us?
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March 12, 2004
Understanding Convexity And Its Role In The Market Convexity traders started putting downward pressure on interest rates last Friday and have been active ever since. Further, the convexity trade could be as big as it has ever been (save last July)....
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March 1, 2004
Mutual Fund Flows Update Currently, we estimate the public’s unrealized profits in equity mutual funds at $690 billion. In February 2003, investors had unrealized profits of only $12 billion . So how did they manage to make another $678 billion...
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February 19, 2004
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update In 2003, the press has widely touted the fact that foreigners’ net purchases of U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds was at an all-time high. Less talked about is the fact that foreigners...
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February 12, 2004
February 2004 Presentation Package Presentation package used in a conference call on February 12, 2004.
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February 12, 2004
Primer Update: How We Use the Fed Valuation Model Is the stock market overvalued or undervalued? One way we can answer this question is by using the Fed’s valuation model for stocks, comparing the earnings yield of an index (the inverse of the...
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December 16, 2003
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update This month, we take a look at foreigners’ purchases of U.S. Agency Securities and U.S. Corporate Bonds in the month of October. Are foreigners really losing interest in U.S....
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October 31, 2003
Contradictions: The Fed vs. the Bond Market The following is excerpted from John Mauldin’s latest weekly E-letter. The main contradiction we will deal with starts with a lunch conversation I had with bond market analysts and guru Jim Bianco two...
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October 22, 2003
Revisiting The Stock/Yields Relationship Despite the positive correlation between stocks and yields existing for nearly five years, many “old pros” are still having a tough time understanding this relationship. For decades the knee-jerk...
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August 14, 2003
The Fed Still Doesn’t Get It! As late as a couple days ago, the Fed had an opportunity to “calm” the bond market by moderating their deflation-fighting view. They either did not get it, or decided they don’t mind higher...
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August 5, 2003
July Total Return Review: How Bad Was July for Treasuries? The attached tables update the total returns through July. A look at the monthly total returns of Treasuries on a historical basis. How bad was July for Treasuries?
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June 26, 2003
The S&P 500: Time For A Change In Thinking The recent breakout in stocks gives us reason to believe a bull market in stocks is now underway. This represents an important time for the financial community to recognize a new philosophy must be...