Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Primer Update: How We Use the Fed Valuation Model Is the stock market overvalued or undervalued? One way we can answer this question is by using the Fed’s valuation model for stocks, comparing the earnings yield of an index (the inverse of the...
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update This month, we take a look at foreigners’ purchases of U.S. Agency Securities and U.S. Corporate Bonds in the month of October. Are foreigners really losing interest in U.S....
Contradictions: The Fed vs. the Bond Market The following is excerpted from John Mauldin’s latest weekly E-letter. The main contradiction we will deal with starts with a lunch conversation I had with bond market analysts and guru Jim Bianco two...
Revisiting The Stock/Yields Relationship Despite the positive correlation between stocks and yields existing for nearly five years, many “old pros” are still having a tough time understanding this relationship. For decades the knee-jerk...
The Fed Still Doesn’t Get It! As late as a couple days ago, the Fed had an opportunity to “calm” the bond market by moderating their deflation-fighting view. They either did not get it, or decided they don’t mind higher...
July Total Return Review: How Bad Was July for Treasuries? The attached tables update the total returns through July. A look at the monthly total returns of Treasuries on a historical basis. How bad was July for Treasuries?
The S&P 500: Time For A Change In Thinking The recent breakout in stocks gives us reason to believe a bull market in stocks is now underway. This represents an important time for the financial community to recognize a new philosophy must be...
The Presidential Cycle in Stocks The Presidential Cycle has become a widely watched cyclical indicator for the stock market. Politicians are more prone to pass legislation that will improve the economy and the stock market the closer they get to...
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through April 2003. In light of April’s low readings in both CPI and PPI, we provide a historical perspective of past months which had similar low readings.
The Relationship Between Corporate Bonds And Stocks In this environment corporate bonds should be viewed independently of the stock market. Their fortunes neither lead nor lag the stock market. Only when a stable relationship between the stock market...
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Who is the largest buyer of U.S. Equities through February (hint: it is no longer Europe)? Also, why is Canada a net seller of U.S. Agencies while most of the rest of the world is buying...
Inflation Watch Update The attached tables update inflation rates through March 2003. Also, a look at the targeted fed funds rate versus CPI. Will the current negative “real” funds rate overstimulate the economy?