Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update We have argued for years there is no long-term relationship between capital flows and movements in the dollar. We can argue a rather different point now: The level and course of the dollar...
The Yen Carry Does Not Drive U.S. Note Yields An increase in Japanese short-term rates will not end the profitability of the yen carry trade. Actions in both American and Japanese yield curves and in the yen option market indicate insurance is being...
Historical Market Performance Under Various Deflation/Inflation Scenarios In this study, we look at how the markets perform under various deflation/inflation scenarios. This study stretches as far back as 1801 and covers stocks, “real”...
Thoughts On Private Equity Funds Investors from around the globe are pouring capital into private equity at an unprecedented rate, making private equity the current choice among “alternative” investments. The bulk of this capital is...
Commitments of Traders Update/Analysis Statistics cover the CoT report for January 31. Further charts and comments include Federal Funds Futures: Large Speculators Stop Trying Russell 2000 Futures: Speculators Are Not Following The Trend Swiss Franc...
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Official Institutions Buy Fewer Treasuries Flight From Quality In The Corporate World? Bond Returns Changed After Bernanke Appointment Bond Doubters Worn Out Dial M2 For Money. M3 Is No Longer In Service Germans Replace Angst With Konfidenz U.S. – Europe Money Market Rate Spreads The Euro… Continue reading Untitled
The Myth Of The January Indicator Why won’t this idea go the way of the Super Bowl indicator, which has incorrectly predicted the market five of the last eight years thus lost its sex appeal? Because the track record of the first week and all...
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through November 30, 2005 with data released December 29, 2005. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds, and the public’s break-even level.
Hedge Fund of Funds: Death of a Salesman As with Arthur Miller’s book, Death of a Salesman, the struggle with reality versus illusion eventually brings about the downfall to the story’s main character. The financial press has been looking...
An Inversion Is Not Unthinkable Not only is a yield curve inversion both conceivable and likely in the present circumstances, we can map how it will unfold from past inversions. The curve’s maximum inversion will occur when the federal funds...
Petroleum Spreads Are Signal, Inventory Is Noise The weekly focus on petroleum inventory data is misplaced. The industry spreads, an admittedly more arcane set of data, provide the signal on which we should focus. These are still supportive of high...
The State of the Hedge Fund Marketplace Conference Presentation Package.