Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
June Total Return Notes: Market Transition Lifts Barbells Long-duration bonds should do well when the end of federal funds rate hikes comes into view and the yield curve is inverted. Even so, the large gains seen in the cash+25-year strip barbell...
Correlated Markets And Central Banks June Conference Call Presentation Package.
An Impending Bond Rally All the pieces for an emergent bond rally are falling into place. These include a move back toward inversion with the two-year note trading under federal funds, rising swaption volatility, declining inflationary expectations...
VIX’ Impact On Equity Groups The recent rise in volatility penalizes recent stock market winners whose total returns depend more on price appreciation and rewards groups whose total return depends more on yield and predictability. This is...
Using REITs To Project Owners’ Equivalent Rent The returns for apartment REITs relative to all REITs are a leading indicator for owners’ equivalent rent; these relative returns are led in turn by mortgage rates. This suggests inexorable...
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Inflation Drives Fed Policy For Now When Uncertainty Becomes Certain Who Is Speculating In Commodities? Central Bank Treasury Activity Is Dominated By Japan How/Why Foreigners Buy Treasuries Treasury Holdings Now We Should Look For A Slowdown Booming Emerging Market Flows – Half An Idea Are ETFs… Continue reading Untitled
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Tables and comments detailing foreign investment through March 31, 2006 with data released on May 15, 2006. This month we take a look at foreign official institution buying of U.S....
Commitments of Traders Update/Analysis Statistics cover the CoT report for May 9. Further charts and comments include 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures: Speculators Near Net Short Extreme Euro Futures: Hedgers At Net Short Extreme Gold Futures: Hedgers...
When Sentiment Fails We have argued that when a sentiment indicator fails, it is still useful information. Typically the market is undergoing a “transition in trend.”
Revisiting Gold Gold has risen in the absence of dollar weakness and in the face of lower expected inflation relative to holding costs. It continues to be a self-fulfilling bull market, weak in comparison to those for base metals, that fortunately...
Operating in a Flat Yield Environment Presentation to the ACLI Conference, Naples Florida.
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update We have argued for years there is no long-term relationship between capital flows and movements in the dollar. We can argue a rather different point now: The level and course of the dollar...