Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Assessing Commodities’ Impact on Financial Markets Equity markets are not treating the recent commodity price downturn as a sign of impending global weakness. Patterns in sector credit default swap costs and industry group relative performance...
The Yen-Yuan Rate And U.S. Notes The strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the Japanese yen removes one incentive for the Bank of Japan to sell yen and buy dollars. The decline in U.S. long-term rates in the face of a narrower yen carry since the...
Bond Volatility Set To Rise An end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle and a subsequent steepening of the yield curve will increase interest rate volatility, especially at the short end of the market. An unintended consequence of higher...
Commitments of Traders Update/Analysis Statistics cover the CoT report for August 1. Further charts and comments include 2-Year Note Futures: Large Speculators Move To Net Short British Pound Futures: Large Speculators Add To Winning Longs Nasdaq...
Correlation Of Volatility Points To Hedge Funds The implied volatilities of unrelated markets exhibit a surprising degree of positive correlation. If markets were traded only by commercial players within that particular business, this would unlikely...
June Total Return Notes: Market Transition Lifts Barbells Long-duration bonds should do well when the end of federal funds rate hikes comes into view and the yield curve is inverted. Even so, the large gains seen in the cash+25-year strip barbell...
Correlated Markets And Central Banks June Conference Call Presentation Package.
An Impending Bond Rally All the pieces for an emergent bond rally are falling into place. These include a move back toward inversion with the two-year note trading under federal funds, rising swaption volatility, declining inflationary expectations...
VIX’ Impact On Equity Groups The recent rise in volatility penalizes recent stock market winners whose total returns depend more on price appreciation and rewards groups whose total return depends more on yield and predictability. This is...
Using REITs To Project Owners’ Equivalent Rent The returns for apartment REITs relative to all REITs are a leading indicator for owners’ equivalent rent; these relative returns are led in turn by mortgage rates. This suggests inexorable...
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Inflation Drives Fed Policy For Now When Uncertainty Becomes Certain Who Is Speculating In Commodities? Central Bank Treasury Activity Is Dominated By Japan How/Why Foreigners Buy Treasuries Treasury Holdings Now We Should Look For A Slowdown Booming Emerging Market Flows – Half An Idea Are ETFs… Continue reading Untitled
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Tables and comments detailing foreign investment through March 31, 2006 with data released on May 15, 2006. This month we take a look at foreign official institution buying of U.S....