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September 26, 2007
Commodity-Currency Correlation Not Very High A correlation study of individual commodities as a function of individual currencies shows most relationships are insignificant statistically.
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September 13, 2007
TIPS, Treasuries And Insurance The low TIPS breakeven rate of inflation can be explained by the relative value of financial crisis insurance relative to inflation insurance.
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September 11, 2007
Credit Stress And The Fed’s Response September 11 San Francisco Presentation Package.
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September 5, 2007
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Updating The Effective Rate Effective Federal Funds Divergence Is Ineffective Policy Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Volatile T-Bills, Jumping Loan Growth Mapping The Path To Libor Stress The Fed Continues To Pump In Liquidity Bond Issuance Updated Volatility Update Measuring The Stock Market’s Pain Financial Stocks Updating Mortgage… Continue reading
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August 29, 2007
Why Subprime Is Not The Problem In The Capital Markets While the resetting of teaser-rate subprime mortgages will stress those borrowers somewhat, this problem is quite limited in comparison to the larger capital market problems of opacity and...
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August 27, 2007
Why The Federal Reserve Might Be Changing The Way It Conducts Monetary Policy The effective funds rate has diverged from the target funds rate to a degree never seen before. Meanwhile, the Fed is supplying huge amounts of liquidity and pinpointing it...
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August 10, 2007
Asset-Backed Commercial Paper’s Selloff The jump in asset-backed commercial paper yields illustrates the extent to which panic is driving financial markets.
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July 31, 2007
Mutual Fund Flows Update Tables updated through June 30, 2007 with data released July 30, 2007. Comments on Stock Funds, Bond Funds and Hybrid Funds, and the public’s break-even level.
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July 30, 2007
What Turns Credit Around? The ABX indices are grotesquely overpriced when looking at what type of housing declines they imply. Any relief rally in the ABX indices could turn into a vertical rise and cause a big positive reaction in high-yield...
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July 18, 2007
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Understanding the Subprime Panic – 1 Understanding the Subprime Panic – 2 Understanding the Subprime Panic – 3 Credit Markets Deals Continue To Drive The Stock Market Looking At Chinese Stocks Chinese Holdings of U.S. Assets The S&P 500 Leads The Federal Budget Deficit Relative Asset… Continue reading
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July 17, 2007
U.S. Treasury’s International Capital Statistics Update Tables and comments detailing foreign investment through May 31, 2007 with data released on July 17, 2007. China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries two months in a row. This is...
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July 16, 2007
Special Report – The View From Shanghai: China Monitor This is the fourth in a weekly series of Special Reports about China, its markets and economy by Hugh Peyman, founder of Research-Works, the leading independent research firm in Shanghai....