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February 10, 2010
Bond Returns In The Last High-Inflation Era A look back at history offers a guide for the inevitable outburst of inflation following excessive monetary stimulus.
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February 1, 2010
January Total Return Review: Dispelling Common Seasonal Myths The attached tables and comments update the total returns through January. Seasonal patterns are very popluar near the beginning of any year. While interesting, they often need to be...
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January 19, 2010
Are Higher Rates Sending A Signal Audio Link To Conference Call Webcast A transcript of the January 14, 2010 conference call.
If It’s Monday, It Must Be “New Federal Reserve Tool...
January 4, 2010
Bloomberg.com – Fed Discusses Limited Bond Sales to Withdraw Stimulus Federal Reserve officials are considering a proposal to schedule limited sales of bonds from the central bank’s $2.2 trillion balance sheet as part of a range of tools for...
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates, A Waste Of Time
December 18, 2009
The Big Picture (blog) – Time Capsule Post (2010 Forecasts) — Open One Year Hence I hereby invoke Bob Farrell’s Rule #9: When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen. <Click on chart for larger image>...
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December 8, 2009
Inflation Prevention Via Dysfunctional Commercial Banks The battle against future inflation rests with the commercial banking system’s failure to convert excess reserves into credit.
A Look At Seasonality In T-Bill Returns
November 20, 2009
Earlier today we posted “What Should We Make Of Negative T-Bill Rates?” We concluded: What caused the downdraft this week? Here we agree with the seasonal argument highlighted above. Bills that mature in 2010 are in demand. This begs...
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November 13, 2009
Municipal Bonds’ Stress Level Rising Anew Municipal bond stress levels are rising with prospects for more of the same.
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November 3, 2009
Intraday Correlation At Silliness Extreme The intraday linkages between equities, crude oil and the euro have exceeded the bounds of absurdity.
Is The Market About To “Undo” The Federal Reserve’s...
September 24, 2009
Bloomberg.com – Vanguard to Use Floating Benchmarks Some index funds to use Barclays Capital float-adjusted bond indexes Several of Vanguard’s index funds will be switching to Barclays Capital’s float-adjusted bond indexes from the...
Mortgage Spreads
May 13, 2009
The Financial Times – Short View: Risk appetite Even though corporate credit remains expensive by historical standards from the point of view of borrowers, the market has eased enough to persuade large companies to issue debt again – plainly...
Wells Fargo Beats The Street, The World Has Changed, Or Has It?
April 9, 2009
The Wall Street Journal – Wells, Claims Data Rally Stocks Hope that the worst may be over for the beleaguered U.S. banking sector and the broader economy drove investors back into the stock market on Thursday. … Wells Fargo shares jumped...