Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Ask any economist for an interest rates forecast and he or she will most likely tell you interest rates are going higher. Ask them why they think interest rates are going up and they will probably tell you a confluence of events is coming together...
Commitments of Traders Update/Analysis Statistics cover the CoT report for February 8, 2011. Further charts and comments include: Eurodollar Futures: Commercials Now Net Long Nasdaq 100 E-Mini Futures: Large Speculators Reduce Net Long Positions...
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Why Crude Oil Prices Are Now Above $100/Barrel Crude Oil Mid-Continent Dislocation Returns TIPS’ Forecasting Record Still Better Than Economists’ Betting On Metals Declining Carry Trade Again A Warning To Global Equities Russian Markets Facing Rising Inflation Carry Into Filipino Markets Fading Thailand Turns Lower As… Continue reading
What is the worldwide price of crude oil? If you’re like most, you will look up the nearby crude oil futures contract that trades on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Yesterday (February 8th) the March 2011 NYMEX contract closed at...
Bloomberg.com – S&P 500 Beating Estimates for Sales by Most Since 2006 More U.S. companies are exceeding sales forecasts than any time in four years, helping extend the biggest stock-market rally since 1936. Caterpillar Inc. and United...
America’s unofficial holiday is this weekend, the Superbowl. What can this event tell us about the economy? The first chart below shows the cost of a 30-second commercial (domestic audience only) during the Superbowl. The blue bars show the...
Today’s ADP report shows 187,000 jobs were created in January. Should we care? Recall that last month an ADP release of 297,000 jobs set economists and traders on fire as they changed their bets and forecasts for December payrolls. Some...
Wall Street is quick to blame Bernanke/the Federal Reserve for just about everything wrong in the financial world. In fact, many conspiracy theorists present the Federal Reserve as an unnecessary entity that needs to be done away with. While...
MarketBeat (WSJ Blog) – Muni Market Woes?: Blame the Media Some muni analysts have recently been telling investors that the selloff in the muni market had essentially been ginned up by the news media, thus making it a great buying opportunity....
Greenlight Capital – Partner Letter, January 18, 2011 On August 27, 2010, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming where he hinted that the Fed would provide additional monetary easing. At the time, the...
Below is a chart of muni outflows (bottom panel in green). The rolling 4-week sum of net new cash flows are worse now than they were during the height of the 2008 panic when prices were plunging and the auction rate securities market blew up. Bond...
On Wednesday we said: Consequently, we are not big fans of this report as a leading indicator of Friday’s payroll report. On a typical Friday afternoon there is a lot of agreement about the inaccuracy of this report. But 3 1/2 weeks later we...