Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
Forecasts for PCE core YoY inflation rising over the next 12 months are 97%. Upside growth in excess of 50 bps stand at 70% using realized economic growth through March 2017. All in all, we are very likely in a rising inflation cycle. The chart below shows median monthly returns and percentage positive for the… Continue reading Total Return Expectations According to...
Comment A client recently asked us to break down public and private pension funds’ holdings of debt versus equities. The first chart below shows the nominal holdings through the Fed’s latest Flow of Funds release as of Q4 2016. The next chart shows the same data as a percentage of all pension fund holdings. The… Continue reading Pension Fund...
Comment The chart below shows the complete history of Gallup’s presidential approval rating back to 1938. The first tab (Presidents’ Rating Comparison) shows the first 100 days of all presidents’ approval ratings since the Great Depression. The middle tab (Presidents’ Ratings Over Time) shows all the Presidents back to 1938. Note you can pick a particular… Continue reading
CNBC – The industry that opposed Trump the most has performed best in his first 100 days Despite loud opposition from tech firms to many of Trump’s policies, investors have hoisted many tech stocks to all-time highs since the election. Shares of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Alphabet have hit one all-time high after another in… Continue reading
ETF Trends – Oil ETFs Drubbed, But Some Argue for Upside For example, USO, one of the most heavily traded commodities exchange traded products of any stripe, slid more than 5%, but some market observers believe oil’s most recent plunge is not justified by poor fundamentals. In fact, Goldman Sachs opines that oil fundamentals are… Continue reading Crude Oil And...
Comment The chart below provides a historical look at the yields of various Treasury instruments as well as Moody’s yields. Some of the data dates back to 1790. In the case of the 10-year note, the following data sets have been spliced together: 1790 to 1831: 3% British Consols 1831 to 1919: High Grade Long-Term… Continue reading A Long Term Look At...
Handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled The Growing Divide Between Survey-Based Data And Realized Data on April 20, 2017. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Q&A from this conference call can be found here. Mp3 replay can be heard below: Your browser does not support the audio… Continue reading
The Financial Times – Diverging US economic data raise questions over ‘Trump bump’ Gap between hard numbers and buoyant mood of companies and consumers is widening Since his inauguration, Donald Trump has enthusiastically trumpeted surging...