Sample Our Reports, Presentations, & Market Insights
A decent year in stocks. As the table below shows, the stock market is having a decent year. Large cap stocks leading the way. As the next chart shows, large cap stocks (blue) are leading the way as small cap stocks (red) lag badly. Market Cap weighted beats equal weight. Another way to… Continue reading 2017 Stock Market Total Returns
Bitcoin continues to fascinate observers and frustrate some owners with its exceptionally high volatility in recent weeks. Now back above $2000, Bitcoin has fought off two sharp declines since the end of May. One contributor to higher volatility is the dramatic fall in volume after the regulatory intervention by the Peoples Bank of China. See… Continue reading
The chart below shows various tenors of interest rates since the initial FOMC hike on December 17, 2015. 10-year yields are almost exactly where they were prior to this hike. 30-year yields are actually lower over this time period. At the same time, yields on the short end of the curve have marched much higher.… Continue reading Interest Rates Since The Fed Started...
The Federal Funds market is showing no signs of reviving. The Fed still targets the federal fund’s rate. They do this by using tools like fixed rate reverse repos and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER). This suggests they think it will return some day. But as the chart below shows, this market’s volume is still… Continue reading Volume Still Near A 40-Year...
Measuring Political Risk. The Economist Intelligent Unit compiles Political Risk measures for 132 countries at last count. The next chart shows the 10 countries with the lowest political risk. Pretty standard stuff (Denmark then Luxembourg are the lowest). The next chart shows the 10 countries with the highest political risk. Britain is on this list! Right… Continue reading
The blue line below shows a 50-day moving average of the total trading volume in actual high-yield bonds as measured by TRACE. In the 50 days ending July 19, $7.66B of high yield bonds traded on an average day. The green line shows the 50-day average of the total dollar volume (price multiplied by shares)… Continue reading One-Fifth Of All High Yield Bond Trading Is Driven...
The black market rate of Venezuela’s currency continues to collapse resulting in hyperinflation and a worsening situation in the country. Note that in the last year the black market rate went from 1,010 Bolivars to buy a dollar to 8,481 Bolivars today. A drop of 88%. At this rate of currency depreciation over the last… Continue reading The Venezuelan...
Financial Times – Dollar sinks on failure of healthcare reform US currency hits 10-month low as hopes fade for Trump economic stimulus The dollar has been a barometer of prospects for the Trump administration’s efforts to enact pro-growth...
The Daily Reckoning – Jim Rickards: The Fed Has Hit the ‘Pause’ Button No rate hikes are coming at the July, September or November Fed FOMC meetings. The earliest rate hike might be at the December 13, 2017 FOMC meeting, but even that has...
Bloomberg View – Komal Sri Kumar: How Trump Could Puncture the Equity Bubble A delay in stimulus measures and the rise in global trade tensions could deflate valuations. Donald Trump’s appeal last November was linked to two factors. Both are...
Wall Street Journal – Bank Earnings Are Coming: Five Things to Watch Calm markets, the Fed and lighter lending are among the factors seen influencing second-quarter results The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise short-term interest rates in...
The Financial Times – John Authers: Fed sides with reflationists as bond battle resumes US central bank sticks to view that inflation will quicken as bond market scepticism intensifies But it is perhaps more about a straight disagreement...