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The volatility of U.S. equities rocketed higher in February but has thus far been mostly an isolated event away from U.S. Treasuries, foreign equities, and currencies
Inflation and wage growth are showing nearly their largest contributions to U.S. Treasury yields since the financial crisis.
Volatility-sensitive equity strategies are suffering in the wake of heightened inflation fears and a pulling in of rate hike expectations.
The Federal Reserve is ending Yellen's term with a hawkish bias, but also a lack of confidence in their forecasts for inflation and wage growth.
Bloomberg – Don’t Bet Against the Fed’s Rate Forecast The central bank is likely to stick to three hikes in 2018. In short, don’t yet bet against the Fed’s 2018 rate forecast from either side. The current...
Bubbles are increasingly floating to the surface indicating an awakening of a beast not seen in over a decade.
Bloomberg – Wage Growth Is Coming. Those Profits Can’t Last Employers report that replacing a departed worker is expensive — a red flag that the workforce is widely underpaid. One of the big economic questions for 2018 is...
The weaker dollar has been a boon for emerging market equities, especially those in the healthcare, materials, financials and energy industries.
View PDF Comment Last week (webcast, conference call) we noted that Q4 earnings expectations are very high. Through Friday only 26 of the S&P companies have reported, so it is still early days in the earnings season. The chart below...
The New York Times – As Shutdown Talk Rises, Trump’s Immigration Words Pose Risks for Both Parties President Trump’s incendiary words about immigration have dampened the prospects that a broad spending and immigration deal can be...
The Wall Street Journal – Uproar as South Korea Plans Cryptocurrency Crackdown Government attempts to tighten control over cryptocurrency trading are sparking a fierce public backlash in South Korea. A petition on the official website of South...
Barron’s – Bright Outlook for the Economy and Stocks The members of Barron’s 2018 Roundtable arrived at our annual gathering in a jolly mood. And why not? U.S. stocks returned an impressive 20% last year, and are off to...