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The U.S. real yield curve has inverted, but is expected to converge (i.e. steepen) back in line with the nominal. Short-end real yields will be weighed down by the likely weakening in flexible prices. On the flip side, longer-end yields will remain...
Risks across asset classes are again aligning with U.S. Treasury volatility, meaning diversification will be difficult heading into the fall of 2018. The ECB, not recent talk of tightening by the BoJ, remains the world's most influential player. We...
A cool housing market and hot temperatures are driving outperformance for home improvement retailers.
Our top posts from the last week.
Real yields, term premium, and implied volatility have little reason to appreciably rise until this conundrum of low productivity and wage growth is solved. U.S. 10-year real yields are up against range highs in place since September, which we...
The outlook for the U.S. dollar against developed market peers is mixed, but we see upside against the euro and yen.
Small business surveys for compensation are at all-time highs, but real wage growth has failed to follow through. Technology is the latent factor anchoring core inflation and wages. The more profit margin improvements are eaten up by technology, the...
Strong balance sheet stocks won't save your portfolio if financial conditions in the U.S. continue to tighten. Past tightening in financial conditions has dented performance across equities and credit markets.
The six FAANMG stocks account for virtually all the gains in the S&P 500 this year. The returns of the other 494 stocks are consistent with signs of a moderating economy.
Today's topics include a preview of the FOMC meeting, emerging markets, political risk, the cost of indexing, Chinese bond defaults and diverging policies in the U.S. and EU.
The favorable beta provided by an expanding global central bank balance sheet may very well hinge on the timing of the ECB's exit from QE.