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We have always warned against placing too much emphasis on seasonal adages such as “Sell in May and go away.” However, the month of September tends to be a quirky month for many assets on a seasonal basis and is worth examination.
A Look at Nearly 65 Years of Mutual Funds Flows All the charts below show the following series: Red line, log-scale of the S&P 500 Blue bars, rolling 12-month sum of all flows into open-ended mutual funds Green bars – total assets The...
Emerging market economic growth has slowed to a point unfavorable for emerging market currencies and favorable for the U.S. dollar. Monetary policy uncertainty should also rise in this environment.
While everyone is obsessing about ETFs consuming the financial industry, and now at zero fees to boot, quietly a new disruptive force may be coming ... abandoning the fund structure altogether in favor of "subscribing" to stock lists, made possible...
Asset allocators are facing an ultra-low return environment aided by a lack of economic surprises and ultra-low volatility in inflation expectations. We are closely watching inflation swap cap/floor ratios to signal a volatility revival.
The consumer services industry is poised to out-perform in the months ahead. We dig into small and big-ticket vacation plans of consumers to explain wage growth and central bank tightening expectations.
A renewed appetite for risky corporate bond exposure has investors pouring into leveraged loans. They are unlikely to outperform high yield bonds unless Treasury yields break free from range-bound conditions.
Investors are unprepared for market shocks given a lack of negative correlated returns or volatility across major asset classes.
Risks behind equities and sovereigns have reconnected, making the lives of asset allocators that much more difficult. Unexpected events have potential to damage nearly all asset classes in a similar fashion. Our belief is investors are aligning...
Technology continuing to gobble up productivity and profit margin gains remains a central reason for low U.S. Treasury term premiums. Additionally, the yield curve is more apt to invert sooner than past historical instances given this weight on...
Correctly timing a credit and coinciding stock market blow-up is essentially an impossibility. We do see indicators beginning to flash red, but the traditional cycle between high yield OAS versus the yield curve has yet to fully play out....
The accelerating decline in search interest for borrowing and banking is a potential threat to the pace of economic growth in the U.S.