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‘Neutral’ Rate Dropping, Are Tighter Financial Conditions Finally on the Way?

August 3, 2017

Bloomberg – Fed Neutral Rate Estimate Drops, Lowest in Over Two Years The so-called neutral U.S. interest rate fell in the second quarter by the most since 2010, according to a widely-cited estimate produced by Federal Reserve economist Thomas Laubach and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. The theoretical rate known in economic circles as “r-star”… Continue reading ‘Neutral’ Rate Dropping, Are Tighter Financial Conditions Finally on the Way?

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ECB Likely the Most Watched Central Bank in 2018 Webcast

August 3, 2017

      OPEN  ECB Likely the Most Watched Central Bank in 2018 Webcast In our latest webcast, Ben Breitholtz looks at his post titled ECB Likely the Most Watched Central Bank in 2018.   Financial markets are taking in stride the Fed’s plans to begin reducing its balance sheet. The great unknown at the moment… Continue reading ECB Likely the Most Watched Central Bank in 2018 Webcast

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What is Driving the Divergence in Returns in Energy

August 3, 2017

Comment Yesterday’s Charts of the Week highlighted a divergence between equity and debt returns in the energy sector. The chart below shows that while investment grade energy debt has kept pace with the broad market, high yield debt in the energy sector has been dragged down by volatile oil prices. Even more striking is the… Continue reading What is Driving the Divergence in Returns in Energy

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Economists’ Expectations Largely In Line With Bettors On Next Fed Chair

August 3, 2017

Bloomberg – Cohn Tops Yellen as Fed Chair Guessing-Game Heats Up White House senior economic adviser Gary Cohn has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair when her term expires in February, according to a July 27–28 survey of economists. The former Goldman Sachs executive took over the top… Continue reading Economists’ Expectations Largely In Line With Bettors On Next Fed Chair

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Cobalt Mania Thanks to Tesla

August 3, 2017

Bloomberg – Electric-Car Revolution Shakes Up the Biggest Metals Markets Producers of copper, cobalt, aluminum to benefit from changes The revolution in electric vehicles set to upturn industries from energy to infrastructure is also creating winners and losers within the world’s biggest metals markets. While some of the largest diversified miners like Glencore Plc argue fossil… Continue reading Cobalt Mania Thanks to Tesla

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Grading Presidents By Stock Gains

August 3, 2017

MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Stocks Are Up 20% Under Donald Trump. Can It Last? Donald Trump is loving the stock market these days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 22000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, the latest milestone in a yearslong bull market that continues to churn higher. It also marks a… Continue reading Grading Presidents By Stock Gains

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Crude Oil Supply/Demand

August 3, 2017

Bloomberg – Oil’s Going, Going, Gone: Auctions Reveal Clues on Crude’s Worth Oil producers who for years tracked top OPEC member Saudi Arabia to help set the price of their crude could now be looking to go solo. With $100 oil a distant memory and U.S. crude eating into their share of prized markets, they are… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply/Demand

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The Problem With Unwinding LIBOR

August 3, 2017

The Financial Times – The demise of Libor is not a done deal for markets Reports of the death of Libor may be exaggerated, particularly in US markets. The UK markets regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, has set a rough timeline for banks to prepare for a transition away from the floating interest rate benchmark… Continue reading The Problem With Unwinding LIBOR

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Previewing Tomorrow’s Payroll Report

August 3, 2017

Bloomberg – July’s U.S. Labor-Market Numbers Will Probably Look Familiar The steady payroll gains have put the U.S. on the verge of a key milestone: returning to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the number of new labor-market entrants. Employers need to have added just 193,000 workers to close this so-called jobs gap since the… Continue reading Previewing Tomorrow’s Payroll Report

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CNBC Viewership Hits A New Low

August 3, 2017

Value Walk – CNBC Has Lowest Rated Business Day in 22 Years in Viewers FOX Business Network (FBN) marked its ninth month as the leader in business news, according to Nielsen Media Research. With the markets hitting new record highs and the Federal Reserve announcing its second interest rate hike of 2017, FBN’s coverage of the… Continue reading CNBC Viewership Hits A New Low

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Breaking The Rules Of Index Funds

August 3, 2017

The Financial Times – Index trackers break basic rules of prudent portfolio management The lessons of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s need to be re-learned. Back then, index trackers contributed to overvaluation because they were forced buyers. As money flowed in they were obliged to buy already overweighted, overpriced stock. The implicit destabilising… Continue reading Breaking The Rules Of Index Funds

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Cartoons

August 3, 2017