The Wall Street Journal – Aug. 9, 2007: The Day the Mortgage Crisis Went Global Ten years ago this Wednesday, the first glimpses of the global financial crisis came into view. A French bank froze three investment funds, saying a lack of trading in subprime securities made valuing them impossible. The bond market seized up, rattling investors and… Continue reading Did The Financial Crisis Begin 10 Years Ago Today?
The Fiscal Times – Passive Investing Is Hot, but It Comes With This Big Risk The big market news over the past week has been the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s smooth, consistent, drama-free rise above the 22,000 level. The combination of solid (yet still somewhat tepid) economic data and strong earnings growth (due largely to the… Continue reading Concentration Of Returns
Bloomberg Markets – Dollar Drops as Fed’s Soft-Inflation Worry Keeps Bulls at Bay The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed Monday’s gains as the latest comments by Federal Reserve policy makers capped the greenback’s rebound. The Norwegian krone and Australian dollar led gains among the Group-of-10 currencies. The greenback felt the heat from Fed speakers who urged caution over… Continue reading Inflation & The Dollar
Bloomberg View – Why Debt Ceiling Worries Are Way Overblown The debt limit panic being led by Paul Krugman and budget experts Stan Collender and Edward D. Kleinbard is probably all for nothing. Absolutely every incentive is for Republicans in Congress to bite the bullet and increase it by the fall deadline (by the end of September, or perhaps mid-October), and absolutely every incentive… Continue reading An Update On The Debt Ceiling
Bloomberg – New Study Says Aging Populations Will Drive Higher Interest Rates Aging populations in China and Europe are poised to transform the global economy by sparking a jump in interest rates that may set the stage for a showdown between the old and the young. So say Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, painting a… Continue reading Demographics Will Drive Rates Higher
Bloomberg – Block Traders Are Strong-Arming the Tamest Bond Market Ever Seen By just about any measure, trading in Treasuries has never been more tranquil. Yet beneath the surface, an explosion of bets in futures is buffeting the $14 trillion market. Block trades, which are large, privately negotiated transactions, have turned into a force to… Continue reading Block Trades
Bloomberg Business – Quants Are Clamoring for Data, Causing Soul Searching at Large Banks Quantitative investors, starved for trading signals that can be spun into gold, are pressuring the finance firms they work with to grant them access to proprietary information. It’s easy to see why. In a world where every kernel of publicly available intelligence… Continue reading The Era Of Big Data
Bloomberg Business – Gundlach, Wary of Pricey Market, Sets Cap on DoubleLine’s Growth The complacency in markets is understandable. Gundlach acknowledges that there are no obvious signs of a recession within six months, the only thing he says would bring about a major correction in asset prices. Everything from consumer confidence to employment to gauges of… Continue reading Gundlach Sees Pricey Markets
Aaron asks: “What’s our prediction on the 10-year yield, and do we see it potentially going down to 2%?” Jim Bianco: That reminds me that you know, you got to give them a time, you got to give them a level, but don’t give them both at the same time. I’ll start with this question,… Continue reading Q&A From Our August 10, 2017 Conference Call
Comment On Thursday, August 10, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. ECB president Mario Draghi speaks in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. The Fed is expected… Continue reading What Moves Rates
Bloomberg – Volatility Gauges Tumble to New Lows Amid Complacency Fears Bank of America MOVE Index closes at an all-time low on Monday The markets are alive with the sound of ‘zzzzzz’ as the latest trading session marks yet another another record low for volatility gauges. Bank of America’s MOVE Index, which gauges volatility in the… Continue reading U.S. Treasuries Need a Wellness Check