We find the ratio between mentions of ‘bitcoin’ and ‘cryptocurrency’ by mainstream media relative to business news a leading indicator of bitcoin returns. Currently, the mainstream media are not keeping pace with the likes of Bloomberg news, suggesting an overbought scenario.
In late 2010 the Bank of Japan (BoJ) started buying ETFs as part of their Quantitative Easing (QE). As the bottom panel below shows, the BoJ now owns 77% of all ETFs in Japan. Note that the ETF market in Japan is small to the total stock market, less than 5%. When QE goes on too… Continue reading The Bank Of Japan Continues To Corner The ETF Market
Superior economic growth, positive election results and currency tailwinds helped drive U.S. ETF investors into European equity ETFs early this year. Some of the appeal seems to have diminished. The chart below shows 20-day net flows for European equity ETFs have turned negative. These funds have seen a total of $527 million in net outflows… Continue reading European Equity ETFs Starting to See Net Outflows
Recent improvements in economic data are fueling better probabilities for higher PCE core inflation over the next 12 months. The chart below shows the probabilities of a decline and varied increases in core inflation using major economic data releases.
The charts below show total returns since September 18, 2012, the day the iPhone 5 was announced and Apple’s stock peaked relative to the S&P 500. Since this date, Apple’s total return has been 75.7%. The S&P 500 is up 90.15% over the same period. As the blue line in the chart below shows, the… Continue reading Stock Sector Returns Since September 18, 2012
The Bloomberg Treasury index is up 7.88% since September 18, 2012. The Bloomberg Agency index is up 7.72%. And the Bloomberg High Yield Index is up 34.34%. View any of the Bloomberg (Barclays) fixed income indices by using the interactive chart below.
The Citi Surprise Index (green line, top panel) is the difference of the Expectations Index or economist consensus (orange line, bottom panel) and the Data Change Index or actual results (blue line, bottom panel). In all these measures numbers above 0 mean expansion, below 0 means contraction. They are measured relative to their levels a year… Continue reading Citi Surprise Indices
The black line in the top panel shows the option-adjusted spread as calculated by BofA. It is plotted inversely, so it moves in the same direction as prices. The blue line in the second panel shows the cumulative flows of money into and out of investment grade (first chart below) and high yield (second chart… Continue reading Investment Grade And High Yield ETF Assets Continue To Rise
Financial Times – How the dollar’s weakness is the rest of the world’s problem Forex markets pose a threat to a synchronised recovery needed to validate stock prices While some segments of American households and companies will suffer from the recent depreciation, the overall economic impact is likely to be favourable. By enhancing price competitiveness, it… Continue reading Growing Risks from Fed’s Focus on Financial Conditions
Bloomberg – Fed’s Patient-or-Preemptive Clash Looms as Inflation Misses Goal Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in year nine of a U.S. economic expansion, conceded in 1999 that patience was sometimes a better policy than his doctrine of preemptive interest-rate moves because “the future at times can be too opaque to penetrate.” For some Fed officials,… Continue reading U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises
Bloomberg Business – Act or Wait? Fed Debate Heats Up After Inflation Misses Target “We just don’t know at this point whether the inflation decline that we’ve seen is mostly being driven by transient, idiosyncratic factors, or whether it’s something more secular, longer-term at play,” Dudley said. “My view is the jury’s out, and I think… Continue reading Timing The Next Rate Hike