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Newsclips

U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises Webcast

September 18, 2017

OPEN U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises Webcast In our latest webcast, Ben Breitholtz takes a look at his post titled U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises. U.S. inflation expectations should continue to rebound in the event economic data surprises (beats) make a triumphant return. History suggests TIPS breakevens widen with great frequency… Continue reading U.S. Inflation Expectations Rebounding with Economic Surprises Webcast

Newsclips

Fed GDP Nowcasts Lower On Harvey-Related Quirks

September 18, 2017

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 15, down from 3.0 percent on September 8. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7… Continue reading Fed GDP Nowcasts Lower On Harvey-Related Quirks

Newsclips

Refineries Recovering From Harvey

September 18, 2017

The Financial Times – How US oil and gas passed test of ‘unprecedented’ weather As Hurricane Harvey battered southern Texas on August 27, the National Weather Service described it as “unprecedented”. There had been stronger storms before, but the torrential rainfall brought by Harvey would have an impact that was “unknown” and “beyond anything experienced,”… Continue reading Refineries Recovering From Harvey

Newsclips

Repo Market Down To One Clearing House

September 18, 2017

Bloomberg – Wall Street’s Trillion-Dollar Monopoly Has Repo Traders on Edge Come mid-2018, just one entity — the Bank of New York Mellon Corp. — will be responsible for ensuring almost two trillion dollars of securities financed by so-called repurchase agreements are cleared and settled each and every day. With its lone longtime rival, JPMorgan Chase &… Continue reading Repo Market Down To One Clearing House

Newsclips

Gauging The Effect Of Reduced ECB Stimulus

September 18, 2017

Bloomberg – Don’t Worry About ECB Stimulus Even After Bond Buying Stops As the European Central Bank brainstorms scenarios for winding down its 2.3 trillion-euro ($2.8 trillion) asset-purchase program, there is what may sound like a chicken-and-egg problem to solve. It goes as follows: when the central bank buys bonds and its balance sheet grows, is it the… Continue reading Gauging The Effect Of Reduced ECB Stimulus

Newsclips

Reaching For Yield

September 18, 2017

The Financial Times – Search for yield blinds markets to real political risks So why have markets become so indifferent to geopolitical risk? One possible argument is that investors have taken Lord Nathan Rothschild’s dictum that “one must buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets” to heart. However, the evidence… Continue reading Reaching For Yield

Newsclips

Ranking “Economic Complexity”

September 18, 2017

Visual Capitalist – Which Countries Have the Most Economic Complexity? In 2009, a team at Harvard formalized a measure of economic complexity that compared nations based on the sophistication of their economies. Now known as the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), the exact measurement is complicated, but it essentially uses data on two main things to… Continue reading Ranking “Economic Complexity”

Newsclips

Bitcoin’s Crazy Week

September 18, 2017

Bloomberg – Mohamed El-Erian: What Last Week Tells Us About Bitcoin Perhaps one of the most useful ways to think of bitcoin (and the increasing number of its cryptocurrency peers) is as an innovation that reduces the barrier to entry to a payment system outside the direct purview and auspices of central banks and most… Continue reading Bitcoin’s Crazy Week

Newsclips

Cartoons

September 18, 2017

Huffington Post – Everything From This 1991 Radio Shack Ad You Can Now Do With Your Phone The back page of the front section [of the Buffalo News] on Saturday, February 16, 1991 was four-fifths covered with a Radio Shack ad. There are 15 electronic gimzo type items on this page, being sold from America’s Technology… Continue reading Cartoons

Newsclips

Consumer Behavior Not Yet Reflecting Stronger Wages/Inflation

September 15, 2017

Summary Stronger gains in inflation are being found near technology hubs like San Francisco, likely where job markets and wages are improving most. Consumer demand for discretionary goods and services have yet to rebound as much as non-discretionary, durable goods. The jobs market is still upbeat, which we hope will finally lead to wage pressure.… Continue reading Consumer Behavior Not Yet Reflecting Stronger Wages/Inflation

Monthly Reports

Inflation Watch – Odds Of December Rate Jump After Uptick In Inflation

September 15, 2017

Bloomberg Business – U.S. Inflation Picks Up, Ending Five-Month Streak of Misses Consumer-price index increased 0.4% m/m (est. 0.3% gain) after 0.1% rise the prior month; rose 1.9% y/y (est. 1.8%) Inflation may finally be getting back on track to reach the Federal Reserve’s goal, as the U.S. cost of living accelerated following a weak stretch… Continue reading Inflation Watch – Odds Of December Rate Jump After Uptick In Inflation

Newsclips

Crunch Time for Brick and Mortar Retailers

September 15, 2017

CNN Money – Wall Street bets Amazon will doom department stores, retailers It’s obviously a terrible time to be a brick-and-mortar retailer. But Wall Street is betting that things will get even worse for department stores and retailers. Investors are placing huge wagers that the one-two punch of Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) and fast fashion will knock out… Continue reading Crunch Time for Brick and Mortar Retailers

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