Bloomberg View – Tim Duy: Fed Would Surprise Markets If It Stays Hawkish Inflation weakness should compel the central bank to take a dovish tack. My expectation is that Yellen will reassert the dominant view at the Fed: The Phillips curve will eventually gain traction and push inflation back to target. Still, the Fed chair will… Continue reading More On The Fed & Its Balance Sheet
View PDF CNBC – A Fed hike is coming in December, according to a CNBC survey, whether the market believes it or not On average, survey respondents see two to three rate hikes next year and forecast the end of the Fed’s rate-hike cycle in 2019. While market prices suggest less certainty, 76 percent of respondents… Continue reading The CNBC Survey Sees A December Hike
Bloomberg View – How the Fed Will Take Account of Hurricanes Beware the conventional wisdom. The futures markets have priced in a 50 percent probability that Federal Reserve policy makers will deliver a third consecutive holiday-season rate hike, up from a scant 20 percent two weeks ago. Mother Nature may not be going along with the… Continue reading Could Hurricanes Alter The Fed’s Next Move?
Business Insider – New leadership at the Fed could upend 20 years of easy money policies This trend toward low or negative real rates has only accelerated in the post-crisis period. Since 2009 the average RFFR has been below -1%. And unlike the 1970s, today negative rates are occurring in the context of historically low inflation.… Continue reading A Long Road Ahead For The Fed
Summary Here we expand our look at market performance during La Niña phases to agricultural commodities. There are no easy answers as the timing of changes in weather conditions and the interplay with global inventories make parsing the effects more difficult. Overall, the combination of the late potential onset of a 2017 La Niña and elevated global… Continue reading Late Onset, Elevated Stocks Likely to Mitigate La Niña Impact on Agriculture
Bloomberg Markets – Flattest Curve in Developed World Tells the Bond Market’s Tale To get a sense of how blasé investors are about inflation look no further than Canada, which sports both the fastest growth among its developed peers and the flattest yield curve. The premium investors demand to hold 30-year bonds over two-year securities shrank… Continue reading Interpreting Flat Yield Curves
Bloomberg Business – Two Big Words Show Why U.S. Oil May Finally Be Turning a Corner Oil futures in New York have been stuck in glut mode, but that may be starting to change for the first time in years as backwardation, one of those big words used by traders, begins to replace contango. After prices… Continue reading Crude Oil Backwardation
Business Insider – We’re officially in the 2nd-largest bull market since World War II We’re officially in the second-largest bull market since World War II.A week ago Monday, the S&P 500 index’s bull market became the second-best performing in the modern economic era. Stocks have climbed by about 270% from their March 2009 low over the past eight… Continue reading Second-Largest Bull Market Since WWII
Bloomberg Business – Bitcoin Is Likely to Split Again in November, Say Major Players In recent weeks, a group of miners — people who crunch complex math problems to generate and transact the digital currency — split off from the legacy bitcoin to use a new version known as Bitcoin Cash. Ver is moving some… Continue reading Bitcoin Likely To See Another Hard Fork
Reuters – Illinois’ unpaid bill backlog hits a record $16 billion Illinois’ pile of unpaid bills topped $16 billion for the first time as the state deals with the fallout of an unprecedented two straight fiscal years without complete budgets, the state comptroller’s office reported on Tuesday. The bill backlog is growing despite the enactment of… Continue reading Continuing Financial Woes In Illinois
Comment On Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webinar/teleconference moderated by Ben Breitholtz and Peter Forbes. Join us Thursday as we discuss how the Fed plans to begin reducing the size… Continue reading Conference Call Thursday: What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization