Vox – How Venezuela went from a rich democracy to a dictatorship on the brink of collapse The government’s response to economic crisis is reshaping the nation. Not far from the US, a desperate leader is steering a once-prosperous democracy toward dictatorship. Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is scrambling to cling to power as his country… Continue reading How Venezuela Got Into This Mess
Bloomberg Business – The New Fed Team Will Inherit Inflation Miss That’s Mystifying Yellen Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s inflation strategy may have a shelf life of about four months. After that, a gang of newcomers might have to decide what to do next. Given such unknowns, central bank transitions are risky for investors. That’s one… Continue reading Turnover At The Fed May Reshape Monetary Policy In 2018
Unherd – The West isn’t threatened by capitalism – but by the return of socialism. Niall Ferguson unedited. We’re learning precisely the wrong lessons from the crash by embracing the “silly” but easily understood argument that we need more regulation. The crash of ten years ago began in the part of the financial sector – the… Continue reading Why Socialism Is Scary
Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10 AM ET, 7 AM PT and 15:00 BST) Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webinar/teleconference moderated by Ben Breitholtz and Peter Forbes. Join us today as we discuss how the Fed plans to begin reducing the size of its balance sheet,… Continue reading Conference Call Thursday: What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization
Forbes – Fed Leaves Interest Rates Intact; Market Puts Odds On December Hike When will the Fed raise rates again? Hard to tell, as the Fed is good at hinting about what might lie ahead but has tended not to broadcast outright what direction it will take. Wall Street appears to be banking on December,… Continue reading The Markets vs. The Fed
View PDF Bloomberg Business – The Fed’s New Dot Plot Federal Reserve officials set an October start for shrinking their $4.5 trillion stockpile of assets, moving to unwind a pillar of their crisis-era support for the economy. They continued to forecast one more interest-rate hike later this year, saying storm damage will have only a… Continue reading Understanding Fedspeak
Bloomberg – The Fed Holds Steady. Will Inflation Do the Same? Officials are giving the economy at least a little more time to reveal its “mystery.” A quick look at the Federal Reserve’s public clues on Wednesday shows little sign it’s ready to reward bad behavior. Bad behavior of inflation, that is. And when I say inflation… Continue reading Bond Investors Affirm Belief in New Normal
Bloomberg – Bond Tantrums Should Be Considered Good Economic Omens Rising debt yields that reflect stronger economic growth may actually function as an “easing” for equities. The reason stock markets have been relatively sanguine is that central bankers are responding to stronger economies globally. It would be different if growth were seen as uncertain, just as… Continue reading Bond Investors Have No Reason to Throw a Fit
Bloomberg – ETF Graveyard Grows as Leveraged Funds Fall Victim to Calm September is set to break monthly record for ETF closures Add another item to the list of things low volatility is doing to the market: record amounts of ETF closures. By the end of September, 42 exchange-traded funds are set to close, the most ever… Continue reading Inverse Leveraged ETFs in Low Volatility Environment
The Weekly Standard – Trump Sees Polling Bump after Hitting August Low-Point After a months-long slide in the polls, President Trump has enjoyed a small bounce-back so far in September. The latest data came Wednesday in a Politico/Morning Consult poll, which shows Trump up to 43 percent from his nadir in August of 39 percent…The… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Rating
The Wall Street Journal – How the Fed’s Balance Sheet Unwind Will Ripple Through Banks With those reserves now falling, banks may need to buy other liquid assets such as Treasurys or mortgage backed securities to stay in compliance with the rules. This will ripple through markets, potentially reducing the impact of the Fed’s unwinding on… Continue reading How Banks Benefit From The Fed’s Unwinding