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September 26, 2017
John Oliver takes on corporate mergers:
John Oliver takes on corporate mergers:
Business Insider – Amazon is making huge physical bets in defiance of the retail apocalypse Amazon has become synonymous with online shopping. But the online giant is increasingly moving into the physical world, opening spaces in malls, shopping districts, and even local strip malls. It’s a move that signals the company’s ambitions are larger than ecommerce. One reason… Continue reading Brick and Mortar Returns Defy the Bad Press
Summary History suggests emerging markets will maintain their strong gains. However the most hotly discussed economies tend to under-perform during risk-off conditions. We expect managers to continue favoring emerging markets with a strong pattern and outlook for business innovation and renewable energies. Comment A slew of emerging market central banks (Argentina, Mexico, Czech Republic, Egypt,… Continue reading Emerging Markets, Don’t Get Caught with the Hot Potato
Bloomberg View – A Central Bank Puzzle for Our Era: What Gives? Inflation isn’t following the formulas. Perhaps that’s because the global economy has changed. Should monetary policy pay more attention to financial conditions and stability? (Hard to argue with that, given the debacle of 2007-2008.) More fundamentally, could policy makers be hostage to powerful trends… Continue reading If The Data Won’t Cooperate, Make A New Model
Bloomberg – Oil Market Looking ‘Heck of a Lot Better’ Lures Back Hedge Funds Things are looking up for oil and it’s bringing hedge funds back…the continuing fall-out from Hurricane Harvey has hedge funds betting that fuel prices will rise. Although Texas refineries knocked offline by the storm are coming back, it could be weeks… Continue reading Hedge Funds Go Long On Gasoline
The Financial Times – The return of the stock picker “While passive strategies clearly have had the upper hand from 2009-2016, historically there has been a clear cyclicality in the leadership between the two,” Andrew Folsom, a senior investment analyst at Wells Fargo wrote in a recent report. “We could be in the early stages… Continue reading Active Funds Gain Ground As Correlations Fall
The Wall Street Journal – Jon Hilsenrath: What We Know About Financial Bubbles What do we know now about bubbles? Where do they come from? How can they be prevented from happening and wrecking the livelihoods of so many?…bubbles tend to emerge around technological innovation—whether that be the advent of canals and railroads in the… Continue reading Understanding The Link Between Debt & Bubbles
The Financial Times – Time spent thinking about the next financial crisis is not wasted In a system that has grown prone to crises, and with unprecedented debt, that is enjoying its longest lull in two decades, the chances of a future crisis are overwhelming. I cannot dispute this argument. But perhaps the most alarming… Continue reading Trying To Pinpoint The Cause Of The Next Financial Crisis
The Wall Street Journal – Ignore the Fed’s Yield Sign at Your Peril The Federal Reserve is telling investors it will flatten the yield curve. They should listen. Last week, policy makers stuck to a projection that they will raise their target range on rates by another quarter point this year. But they also lowered… Continue reading More On Market Projections vs. Fed Projections
Comment Yesterday we hosted a conference call titled What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization. To view the handout, listen to the mp3 or view the webinar, click here. Bloomberg Business – Eight Takeaways From This Week’s Fed Meeting Balance-sheet reduction will be as unexciting as possible, and for good reason. In announcing that the process will begin… Continue reading What to Expect From Balance Sheet Normalization Conference Call Replay
Comment The U.S. yield curve is in a precarious situation with market expectations for rate hikes rebounding, while economic and inflation growth remain tepid. The U.S. 2-year 10-year spread resides less than 10 bps above its flattest levels seen in 2016 near 75 bps. Long-end yields are a combination of the expected path of… Continue reading U.S. Yield Curve Needs Economic Gains to Match the Rebound in Rate Hike Expectations