The Financial Times – Haven currencies are not always a safe bet Carry trade behaviour often a better explanation for currency moves In benign market conditions and periods of low volatility, carry trades come into their own. These trades see investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to fund purchases of high-yielding currencies so as to pocket the… Continue reading Safe Haven Currencies
The Wall Street Journal – Oil-Price Forecasts Fall for Fifth Month in a Row Concerns remain that the crude oversupply will continue to grow in 2018 Banks cut their oil-price forecasts for a fifth consecutive month despite a recent price rally amid concerns that the oversupply of crude will grow next year. A poll of 15 investment banks… Continue reading Predicting Oil
The Financial Times – John Plender: Don’t rule out a world of perpetual quantitative easing Central bankers find themselves in a quandary that is also inescapably political The difference in perception between policymakers at the Federal Reserve and the markets could not be more marked. Fed officials are predicting that rates will have to rise before… Continue reading Permanent QE?
Comment In the webcast above, Jim Bianco examines the latest Commitments of Traders data released by the CFTC on September 29, 2017. The visualization below offers a sample of our full report updated through the end of 2016. For our complete weekly analysis, the longer version of the webcast above and full access to… Continue reading Commitment of Traders Analysis for September 29, 2017 Promo
MarketWatch – Chicago PMI jumps to near three-year high in September The numbers: The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 65.2 in September from 58.9 in August, on a scale where any reading above 50 indicates improving conditions. That’s the highest level in three months and close to June’s reading of 65.7, the highest level since… Continue reading Widening Gap Between Soft, Hard U.S. Data
Bloomberg – Fed Eyes Rates as Asset-Price Tool in Break With Hands-Off Past Strategy echoes approach backed by Fed chair contender Warsh Federal Reserve policy makers are embarking on a subtle shift in strategy with potentially big implications for investors: using interest rates as a tool to contain the knock-on effects of lofty stock and… Continue reading Get Ready, Financial Conditions Primed to Tighten for First Time
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For September 29, 2017 In the webcast above we detail the latest CoT data for interest rates, the dollar, the Canadian dollar and copper. Click the open button to view the report and click here for our interactive CoT visualization.
View PDF Comment Q3 earnings reports will begin next week. Year-over-year operating earnings growth estimates for all of the S&P 500 (blue) have slumped to 4.28%. Ex-energy earnings (red) are expected to grow by just 2.56%. As the second chart shows, Q3’s expectations of 4.28% growth (light blue) are well below Q2’s growth rate.… Continue reading Q3 Earnings Preview
Comment As the chart above shows, Yellen (orange) is now in third place behind Warsh (dark blue) and Powell (light blue). Predictit added a contract for Powell on Friday when his name as a potential Fed chief first came to light. That led to massive re-positioning among all other candidates’ contracts, accounting for… Continue reading The Race For The Fed Chair
CNBC – This was the least volatile September ever, here’s what that means for stocks The calendar says Fall, but you’d be forgiven if you think it’s Summer. That’s because this was the least volatile September on record, but that may not be such a great thing for the rally, according to one top technician.… Continue reading Where’s The Volatility?
The Financial Times – Supply-side shocks confound Fed’s economic models As a mere humble observer of passing macro events, rather than a model builder, I have been noticing a series of unexpected supply-side shocks coming in one business after another. Unlike the technology and globalisation changes of the previous two decades, these are leading to… Continue reading Supply-Side Shocks