Bloomberg – Bulldozers Can Show You Where the Economy’s Going Before the Official Data Do A fleet of excavators, bulldozers and dump trucks spread out across the globe provides an early peek at what’s happening in construction, mining, and the broader economy. The 470,000 machines sold by Komatsu Ltd. almost continuously transmit their position and… Continue reading A New Way Of Gathering Economic Data
The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Shale Juggernaut Shows Signs of Fatigue American shale drillers, which defied expectations and upended traditional oil markets by increasing production in the face of lower prices, are finally showing signs of slowing down. U.S. oil output remains robust and may still surpass the record annual average of 9.6 million… Continue reading A Shale Slowdown?
The chart below shows the month-end fed funds forward curve back to 2009. Each color represents a different year. These curves show the market always prices in higher rates over the long run. So up until recently, the fed funds market has completely missed the boat. The next chart shows the probability of a rate hike at… Continue reading Fed Funds Futures Update
Regional banks have returned from the brink once again, rescued by optimism about tax reform. We noted that regional banks were looking vulnerable and testing key supports back on September 7. A modest steepening (7 bps) in the 2y10y spread and a wave of optimism about tax reform benefiting the financial sector has helped regional… Continue reading Regional Banks Flying High on Optimism
The likelihood of a bearish shock to U.S. Treasuries is elevated at 62%, but quite tempered considering U.S. 10-year yields have risen ~29 bps since early September. The model below provides probabilities of U.S. 10-year note yields rising >1.5 standard deviations within the next twenty trading days. Probabilities in excess of 80% raise red flags.… Continue reading Red Flags Not Yet Raising for a Bond Rout
Investors poured into the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF during September. We highlighted last week how the surge of inflows ahead of the September FOMC meeting quickly found themselves sitting on unrealized losses.With this week’s decline, all investors who purchased shares since August 8 are now sitting on losses. Those investors have held on… Continue reading Long Term Treasury ETF Investors Holding On Despite Losses
In Newsclips earlier today we highlighted Puerto Rico’s rising muni yields in the wake of Hurricane Maria. Those interested in viewing muni yields across the 50 states along with several other muni securities can see the visualization below. As always, the various parameters allow users to choose specific time frames or securities.
A client recently asked us for a breakdown of the dollar value of home sales in the U.S. by price tier. The data below is as of August 2017.
Stocks have had an incredible run since the end of the Great Recession. The NASDAQ leads the pack of major indices, up 346%. Value stocks are beating growth stocks by a decent margin. The consumer discretionary sector (red line) is the leading sector, up 353%. The energy sector is up… Continue reading Stocks Since The End Of The Great Recession (6/30/2009)
The Bloomberg Treasury Index is up 27.17% since 6/30/2009. The Bloomberg High Yield Index is up 124% over the same period. And the Bloomberg Agency Index is up 21.43% since the end of the Great Recession. To look at returns for all other fixed income indices, see the… Continue reading Bond Returns Since The End Of The Great Recession (6/30/2009)
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 30.42% since the end of the Great Recession. The Bloomberg Precious Metals Index is up 26.07% while gold is up 30.40% since the end of the Great Recession. The Bloomberg Energy Index is down 74%. Crude oil (brown line below) is down 28.34%. … Continue reading Commodity Returns Since The End Of The Great Recession (6/30/2009)