Barron’s – Black Monday 2.0: The Next Machine-Driven Meltdown In the rise of computer-driven trading, some hear echoes of the stock market’s 1987 crash. Beware the feedback loop. Quantitative investors understood early on that betting on stocks based on their characteristics—and not the underlying business fundamentals of a particular company—was a good way to outperform the… Continue reading Robots Are Taking Over The Markets
The Wall Street Journal – Why James Dimon and Larry Fink Aren’t Buying Bitcoin Two of the top executives on Wall Street criticized the digital currency bitcoin Friday, with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon giving a lengthy rant on the topic. He was joined briefly by Laurence Fink, chief executive of Blackrock Inc. The Financial Times… Continue reading Dimon Can’t Stop Talking About Bitcoin
Barron’s – Barron’s Big Money Poll: Managers Cling to Bullish Views Top money managers in our exclusive survey remain solidly optimistic. Their views on tax reform, sectors, the dollar, and Trump’s tweets. As the bull market charges through its ninth year, the feats keep on coming. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has closed at a… Continue reading Big Money Managers, Fully Invested Bears?
Barron’s – Who Says This Stock Market Is Overpriced? The market is now near its all-time highs. Yet, says Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, that doesn’t mean a turnaround is in the cards. As the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash neared, Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate and Yale University economist, mused on why today’s… Continue reading More On Fully Invested Bears
The Financial Times – ‘Economic hate crimes’ will dog next US bailout Clearinghouses will take centre stage in a future financial crisis, writes John Dizard Dodd-Frank and other reforms have made the outright failure of large banks much less likely. In a future crisis, clearinghouses are more likely to be the centre of financial stress. Some… Continue reading Focusing On Clearinghouses During The Next Crisis
The Financial Times – Saudi Aramco considers shelving international IPO Oil company could turn to private share placement as doubts grow about going public Saudi Aramco is considering shelving plans for an international listing in favour of a private share sale to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors. Talks about a private sale… Continue reading Aramco May Not Move Forward With IPO
Bloomberg – Some ECB Members Identify 2.5 Trillion-Euro QE Limit Some European Central Bank policy makers see room for little more than 200 billion euros ($235 billion) of purchases under the institution’s bond-buying program next year, according to central-bank officials familiar with the matter. The ECB is likely to run out of available debt under… Continue reading Has The EU Hit Its QE Limit?
Below is our handout, mp3 replay and webcast replay for our conference call titled Outlook for Rates, the Fed and Markets on October 12, 2017. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). A transcript of the Q&A can be found here. Mp3 replay can be heard below: Webcast replay is below:
Bloomberg Markets – Fed Study Suggests Trump May Have Fed to Thank for Stock Rally Central bank reaction key to tax cut’s effect, paper shows Tax cuts were bad news for the stock market in the three-decade era ushered in by then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who took office in 1979. That’s because they tended to raise… Continue reading Who Can Claim The Rally? Trump Or The Fed?
Summary We aim to create a better market-based measure of uncertainty capable of tracking economic policy uncertainty measures. The remainder left over after subtracting commodity returns from TIPS breakevens appears to provide a hedge to perceived uncertainty. Comment Economic policy uncertainty measures have been on the decline since January of 2017. The Trump administration’s inability… Continue reading Attempting to Profit from a Potential Rise in Economic Policy Uncertainty
CNBC.com – Fed’s Powell: Emerging markets likely to cope with normalizing global economy He says vulnerabilities in emerging markets remain below crisis-prone periods in decades past, and that capital flows have been moving in line with fundamentals. The influential Fed governor noted that while vulnerabilities in emerging markets have been rising, they remain well below crisis-prone… Continue reading Tech, Not Commodities, Fueling Emerging Markets