The New York Times – SARAH BINDER and MARK SPINDEL: The Fed Claims to Be Independent. That’s Mostly a Myth But in truth, research shows, Fed independence is largely a myth. With President Trump expected to interview the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen today as he considers new leadership, it’s worth examining the idea that the Fed is unfettered in… Continue reading Is The Fed Independent?
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Will Seniors’ Spending Catch Up to Their Soaring Optimism? Older Americans are increasingly chipper about the U.S. economy, but their positive outlook has yet to translate into robust spending growth. U.S. consumer confidence among Americans ages 55 and over as measured by the Conference Board has climbed each month from the… Continue reading Spending Habits Are Not Dependent On Consumer Sentiment In Short-Term
The Financial Times – The tug of war grows more fraught for investors A “Yes, but” emerged from last week’s global gathering of policymakers that provides a comprehensive check-up for the global economy. In Washington for the 2017 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, officials from almost 190 countries mixed excitement… Continue reading A Cautiously Optimistic Global Economy
As the chart below shows, for the past 5 years volatility in the stock market has remained low. The VIX peaked on August 24, 2015, at the height of the China Yuan devaluation induced market panic, and has been steadily moving downward ever since. Bond volatility peaked on July 5, 2013, the height of the “taper tantrum”… Continue reading Low Volatility In The Markets
If you are having trouble staying awake at the trading desk, you are not alone. As the interactive visualization below shows, the S&P 500 has gone 239 days without experiencing a 3% drawdown. Unless stocks drop 3% by the end of the week, stocks will break the all-time record for consecutive trading days without a… Continue reading The Markets Are Quiet Out There
All stocks indexes have had a good run since run since the VIX peaked August 24, 2015 (see above). The NASDAQ 100 leads up 55%, the Russell 2000 is up 39% and the S&P 500 is up 41%. Value stocks lead growth stocks, both up 39% and 37%, respectively. Financials are… Continue reading Stock Returns Since the August 2015 Peak In Volatility
The Bloomberg Treasury index is up 9.82% since July 5, 2013. The Bloomberg High Yield index is up 30.36%. Use the interactive chart below to view all the bond indexes.
The Bloomberg commodity index is up 13% since oil peaked in 2016. The energy index is up 18% since volatility in crude oil peaked in February 2016. To view any commodity sub-group, use the interactive chart below.
Bitcoin has continued its amazing run even as Jamie Dimon continues to bash it.