Bloomberg – Oil in Longest Rally in 3 Months on Signs of U.S. Stockpile Drop Oil rose above $55 a barrel in New York in the longest winning streak in three months as U.S. industry data showed both crude and gasoline inventories declined last week. Futures advanced for a fifth day, having added 5.5 percent since… Continue reading Crude Oil
Bloomberg Business – The Only Thing That Crashed This October Was Volatility: Chart Volatility doesn’t do sentiment. Despite historically being the most volatile month of the year and even as we commemorated the 30th anniversary of the Black Monday stock market crash, this October was the calmest on record for equities. The CBOE Volatility Index recorded the lowest monthly average… Continue reading Volatility Remains Low
Bloomberg View – Conor Sen: You Can’t Trust the Usual Gauges on This Economy Comparisons with potential GDP show the U.S. overheating. That does not compute. You can tell a happy story with the headline numbers from last week’s estimate of third-quarter GDP growth. But a closer reading is troubling. A second consecutive quarter of 3… Continue reading How Not To Gauge This Economy
The Financial Times – Active managers should welcome cold shoulder from Harvard MBAs One telling statistic to emerge: only 6 percent of this year’s graduating class of MBAs from Harvard Business School chose to go into investment management. This is the smallest number since the records, released by Soifer Consulting, have been kept. Twice this proportion… Continue reading New Grads Stay Away From Investment Management
Rotation into tech offset waning optimism about tax reform. Financials, material, energy still exposed if tax cuts disappoint.
Deregulation remains a substantial tailwind for equity markets. However sentiment for tax reform is again rebounding.
Fears of a bond rout should be muted. We use Google search trends to calculate fair value estimates for state munis.
Weee
It is too early to claim Q3 2017 is a successful earnings quarter. If anything there is more worrisome signs than positives.
Betting markets represent the aggregation of consensus opinion and are giving Powell an 85% chance of getting the Fed job.
Bloomberg.com – Goldman Agrees With Dalio’s Tale of Two Economies: Eco Pulse A divided job market leaves the Fed staring down a difficult choice Goldman Sachs economists agree with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio: The U.S. economy is running at two speeds. Goldman researchers examine how the U.S.’s divided labor market could influence the Fed in a new research note, weighing… Continue reading The Divided Labor Market