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Continuity at the Fed Means Continued Divergence with Financial Markets
November 3, 2017
Continuity implies a large gap remains between market and Fed expectations for inflation growth and the path of interest rates.
Newsclips
Focused on Tax Reform, Banks Rally Despite Flattening Treasury Curve
November 3, 2017
Optimism about tax reform helped U.S. banks outperform in October. Policy details might challenge that.
Monthly Reports
Employment In Pictures – Revising Away The Hurricanes
November 3, 2017
Bloomberg Business – U.S. Adds 261,000 Jobs as Storm Effects Reverse; Wages Stall U.S. employers added the most workers in a year, rebounding from September’s slowdown, as people resumed work after hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Labor Department figures showed Friday. The jobless rate fell to the lowest since 2000 while wages stalled. The report indicates the fallout… Continue reading Employment In Pictures – Revising Away The Hurricanes
Newsclips
Range-trade Continues for the US/UK 10-year Spread
November 3, 2017
Comment Like our projections for GBPUSD, we estimate the path of the US UK 10-year spread since 2013 using hard and soft economic data, inflation surprises, and BoE/FOMC rhetoric. We can explain 65% of the variation the spreads changes over the next 65 trading days. Soft data growth in the US and the unfortunate soft vs… Continue reading Range-trade Continues for the US/UK 10-year Spread
Newsclips
Tech Stocks’ Influence In The S&P 500
November 3, 2017
We discussed how important the FAANMG stocks have been to the S&P 500 this year.
Newsclips
Central Bankers Don’t Know How To Predict Inflation
November 3, 2017
We have noted that Yellen has been reduced to guessing about inflation
Newsclips
Bitcoin Continues Its Rise
November 3, 2017
Bitcoin is up $2,000 in the last week
Newsclips
U.S. Productivity Rises In Q3
November 3, 2017
5-Year productivity gains are still slumping near a generational low
Newsclips
Canadian Markets Like Trudeau
November 3, 2017
Bloomberg View – Matthew Winkler: Markets Vote ‘Yes!’ on Canada’s Trudeau Two years after his surprise political rise, stocks, bonds and the currency are booming. Trudeau’s advocacy of more government stimulus shows no signs of aggravating the credit markets. Deficit spending notwithstanding, traders are betting that inflation will decline to a 10-year average of 1.55… Continue reading Canadian Markets Like Trudeau
Newsclips
Are Higher Oil Prices Here To Stay?
November 3, 2017
Bloomberg View – Jason Schenker: Get Used to These Higher Oil Prices Rising demand and falling inventory are not just a U.S. phenomenon. Oil prices are at their highest since the start of the year, after rising above the key $50-a-barrel mark in September and holding those gains. Rather than pure speculation, this move is rooted… Continue reading Are Higher Oil Prices Here To Stay?
Newsclips
Larry Summers Talks Tax Cuts
November 3, 2017
The Financial Times – Larry Summers: One last time on whom corporate tax cuts benefit First, a cut in the corporate tax rate from 35 to 20 percent in the presence of expensing of substantial or total investment has very little impact on the incentive to invest. Imagine the case of full expensing. If a… Continue reading Larry Summers Talks Tax Cuts