Marketwatch – History suggests the stock market is poised for a big turkey bump This month also heralds the beginning of the best six months of the year for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 6.7%, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. But in years when the stock market rose… Continue reading How Markets Perform Historically During The Holiday Season
h/t Mark Dow
Summary Investors are sending flows to TIPS, however a worrying gap has developed between TIPS breakevens and inflation swap caps. Forecasts suggest this gap should close with sideways to narrower TIPS breakevens into year-end before favorable seasonals begin in January. Comment Investors have swiftly delivered flows to short-term TIPS ETFs (left), while broad-based and longer-term… Continue reading The Market Has Two Different Views About Inflation
La Niña is coming. Low inventories mean heating oil is still vulnerable to a long cold snap.
The Wall Street Journal – Germany’s Political Impasse Will Stymie Further European Change Prospects for overhauling the EU and its currency, already slim, become even more remote The prospects for overhauling the European Union and its currency, the euro, have hit further trouble as Germany grapples with newfound political instability and its leaders brace for potential… Continue reading More On Merkel
OPEN The State Of Risk-On ETF Flows Webcast In the webcast above, Jim Bianco discusses our recent post titled The State Of Risk-on ETF Flows? Technology and small-cap equities are expected to end 2017 on a high note. ETF inflows have not turned to outflows signifying investors shedding risk assets in favor of safety. Consumer… Continue reading The State Of Risk-on ETF Flows Webcast
CNBC – Market is ‘clearly near to a top,’ says longtime bull Jeremy Siegel * Next year will likely bring lower returns and perhaps a “pause” for the stock market, Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC. * “We have one more push and I think it’s connected with the corporate tax reform,” the longtime… Continue reading Your Daily Dose Of Scary Talk
Bloomberg.com – The Flattening Yield Curve Is Like Surging Bitcoin to Morgan Stanley To Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Hornbach, the flattening Treasury yield curve has a lot in common with the surging price of bitcoin. For both trades, the best option is to simply buy the dips, Hornbach, global head of interest-rate strategy, wrote in a Nov. 18 note.… Continue reading The Yield Curve Continues To Plunge
Coindesk – CME’s Bitcoin Futures Likely to Start Trading December 11 New details have been posted about CME Group’s upcoming bitcoin futures, which – barring any delays from regulators – will start trading on Dec. 11. The derivatives exchange operator has published information about the contract launch on its website, following CME CEO Terry Duffy’s headline-grabbing announcement from last week.… Continue reading Bitcoin Futures Coming
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For November 17, 2017 In the webcast above we detail the latest CoT data for interest rates, the dollar, the Yen, heating oil and the stock indices. Click the open button to view the report and click here for our interactive CoT visualization.
Bloomberg.com – A Trader Called the ‘VIX Elephant’ Is About to Rock Volatility Options Derivatives traders should brace themselves for massive volumes in volatility-linked options. An options behemoth that’s been betting on a modest rise of the Cboe’s VIX index — and traded 3.15 million contracts so far this year — may roll over a huge… Continue reading More On Slumping Volatility
The Wall Street Journal – Borrowing Bonanza in Emerging Markets Hunt for yield has let risky governments to sell lots of debt at low yields A decade of loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has sent gushers of cash to emerging markets. One big impact has been to reduce funding costs for a host of… Continue reading Emerging Market Borrowing