The Financial Times – Veteran investors in vanguard of big bet on technology shares Stanley Druckenmiller and Julian Robertson among those with concentrated sector longs US regulatory filings released this month showed that in the third quarter Mr Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office held 41 percent of its long US equity holdings in just five technology shares… Continue reading Betting On Tech
Fortune – Nearly 4 Million Bitcoins Lost Forever, New Study Says Just as gold bars are lost at sea or $100 bills can burn, bitcoins can disappear from the Internet forever. When all 21 million bitcoins are mined by the year 2040, the actual amount available to trade or spend will be significantly lower. According… Continue reading Bitcoin’s Disappearing Act
The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street’s 2017 Market Predictions: Pathetically Wrong Forecasting is difficult, but this year showed exactly how pointless it can be: Markets performed opposite of virtually all predictions There are two big lessons to learn from the mistakes of the year-end crystal-ball gazing. The first is that when everyone agrees that prices… Continue reading Revisiting 2017 Market Predictions
A pipeline spill has pushed WTI and brench crude deeper into backwartdation. Supply constraints should narrow the brent-WTI spread and accelerate inventory draws.
Bloomberg – Black Friday Retailers Looking to Extend Moment of Optimism Nearly seven in 10 Americans expect to shop over the weekend As Black Friday shoppers descend on stores this weekend, retailers are experiencing something that’s been in short supply: optimism. Brick-and-mortar chains are coming off a generally positive earnings season, with companies such as Wal-Mart… Continue reading Early Start to Black Friday Shopping, But Amazon and Walmart Remain Winners
The Wall Street Journal – Daniel Kruger: Have Trillions of Fed Dollars Broken a Bond Market Warning Sign? While analysts have long considered the gap, known as the yield curve, a key barometer for the health of the economy, many are split about what the signal means now. Much of their disagreement is rooted in… Continue reading More On The Yield Curve
The Wall Street Journal – Saying Bye to Buybacks Buybacks have been popular in recent years, in part because tepid economic growth limited perceived investment opportunities as well as expected returns on new plant and expanded operations. Adding to their appeal, repurchases can make shares more attractive to investors by lowering the share count and accordingly… Continue reading Saying Bye To Buybacks
Bloomberg Markets – Central Banks Are Right When They Say No One Understands Them Central banks have been talking a lot about the need for clear communication with the public lately, and they may have a point about how that could improve their standing. A working paper published by the Swiss National Bank this week analyzed survey data from its… Continue reading Does Anyone Understand What Central Banks Are Communicating?
The Wall Street Journal – Fed on Track for December Rate Rise, but Inflation Worries Persist Officials in early October began shrinking the Fed’s more than $4 trillion portfolio of mortgage and Treasury bonds by letting predetermined amounts of maturing assets run off its balance sheet. The move had been anticipated for months and caused no… Continue reading Fed Set To Raise Rates In December
Bloomberg View – Matt Levine: The Uncertain Future of Bitcoin Futures Of course this makes sense, because handling bitcoins is mostly terrible. The fate of every bitcoin exchange, I often say around here, is to have its bitcoins stolen, so CME is quite sensibly launching a bitcoin exchange without any bitcoins to be stolen. Individuals and institutions who… Continue reading Bitcoin Futures
Bloomberg View – Tyler Cowen: Cryptocurrencies Don’t Belong in Central Banks Because crypto assets are not large enough to pose systemic risks for economies, it’s best to let markets try to figure out the answers to these and other questions. What’s needed now is further experimentation, not bureaucratization. If central banks move into this world,… Continue reading Why Central Banks Should Stay Away From Cryptocurrencies