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Risk-on Flows, but Cyclicals Expected to See Tempered Returns

December 4, 2017

Summary Economic data including more grass-roots information like Google Domestic Trends indicate continued growth. ETF flows remain ‘risk-on,’ but heavy flows to cyclicals suggest tempered returns by the year’s darlings of the stock market. Comment The chart below shows the most recent three-month changes in Google search traffic by topic as dark blue dots. The light red… Continue reading Risk-on Flows, but Cyclicals Expected to See Tempered Returns

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Supply Shocks Not as Dramatic for Munis as Expected

December 4, 2017

Munis are expected to rebound from the so-called 'supply shock.'

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Gold Fading into the Background

December 4, 2017

Behavioral Macro (Mark Dow) – The Last Post of Gold Except for extreme moments, the correlation between gold and real interest rates plots pretty high. And real rates are going higher. You don’t have to believe they are going a lot higher, but you do kind of have to believe the sign is positive. Europe and… Continue reading Gold Fading into the Background

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Making The Case For Bitcoin

December 4, 2017

If cryptocurrencies succeed in its goal as an accepted currency, it could be one of the biggest disruptions in a long time.

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Bitcoin Everywhere and Anywhere After Reaching $10,000

December 4, 2017

  Blockchain Capital – Bitcoin Survey Fall 2017 As Bitcoin surged from $250 just two years ago to over $7,000 today and the industry around it has boomed, the digital asset has been increasingly featured in public discussion. In light of this increased exposure, we decided to take the pulse of the country to gauge… Continue reading Bitcoin Everywhere and Anywhere After Reaching $10,000

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Conference Call Transcript – Is This The World We Now Live In?

December 4, 2017

Transcript of the November 30 conference call

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Commitment of Traders Analysis Webcast For December 1, 2017

December 4, 2017

Webcast detailing the November 28 data.

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Central Banking Aint Easy

December 4, 2017

The Financial Times – Central banking has never looked more daunting The past couple of decades have witnessed a remorseless fall in the real rate of interest consistent with macroeconomic equilibrium — the “natural” rate. The causes are still a matter of debate. Some point to higher savings, others to the impact of slow productivity… Continue reading Central Banking Aint Easy

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Investing In Chinese Stocks: Locals vs. Foreigners

December 4, 2017

The Financial Times – China equity market anomaly widens despite Stock Connect Trigger warning: proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis may wish to look away now. In November 2014, when China launched Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect, a pipeline designed to facilitate two-way flows between two hitherto largely sealed off equity markets, identical stocks listed on both… Continue reading Investing In Chinese Stocks: Locals vs. Foreigners

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The Tax Reform Effect

December 4, 2017

Betting markets say tax reform will pass

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A Wave Of Debt Redemptions

December 4, 2017

The Financial Times – Debt redemption wave of $1tn looms in 2018 A $1tn wave of fixed-income debt is set to mature in Europe, the Middle East and Africa in the coming year, posing a significant challenge for investors searching for returns, according to new research. The debt was raised by investment-grade companies, sovereigns and… Continue reading A Wave Of Debt Redemptions

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Foreign Flows Into U.S. Equities On The Rise

December 4, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Overseas Investors (Finally) Join the U.S. Stock-Market Party Foreign-investor money is pouring into the U.S. stock market at the fastest clip in years, ending a long period of selling and providing a fresh boost to a more than eight-year rally. Overseas buyers have pumped $66.4 billion into U.S. stocks this… Continue reading Foreign Flows Into U.S. Equities On The Rise