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December 19, 2017
Comment If Trump has done anything to help the markets, we believe it has been the dramatic cut in regulations under his administration. The chart below, which shows the number of pages in the Federal Register, is our favorite measure to illustrate this. Whenever a new regulation is made, it must be chronicled in the Federal Register. So this… Continue reading Talking Deregulation
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For December 15, 2017 Webcast In the webcast above we detail the latest CoT data. Click the open button to view the report and click here for our interactive CoT visualization.
Bloomberg – Canadian Oil Shippers Find Rail Space Is Scarce as Prices Slide Rail carriers trying to clear grain shipment backlog After a two-week shutdown of one of the largest export pipelines to the U.S. caused oil to back up in Alberta tank farms, Canadian railroad companies struggling to fulfill commitments to ship other commodities… Continue reading Canadian Oil Producers Choking On Pipeline Closures
The Wall Street Journal – Investors Are the Most Bearish Since Great Financial Crisis Nearly seven in 10 investors say stocks are overvalued For years, the historic run higher for U.S. stocks has been characterized as a “hated” rally, one that has consistently vexed investors with rising prices in the face of widespread skepticism. If anything, repeated… Continue reading Stock Market Sentiment
The Economist – A bit on the sideBitcoin is a speculative asset but not yet a systemic risk For those who believe that cryptocurrencies could be the next big thing, buying bitcoin is like an option contract: it might just pay off. For everyone else, the wise course is to watch. Investors have had a lot… Continue reading Maybe Bitcoin Is Not A Bubble
The Wall Street Journal – Commodity Hedge-Fund World Loses One More: Madava to Close Firm to liquidate by Dec. 31, after Blackstone requested to pull funds One of the last remaining commodities hedge funds, Madava Asset Management, is shutting down after a major investor requested to pull funds, according to people familiar with the matter. Blackstone… Continue reading The Bad News For Hedge Funds Keeps Coming
Comment The great technical analyst Art Merrill did some groundbreaking work in the 1940s. He came up with the idea of the “indicator blackout period” that runs from December 15 to the first Friday of the new year. During this period markets can behave abnormally because of year-end/year-beginning pressures. So don’t read too much into their movements. We believe… Continue reading Indicator Blackout Period
The New York Times – As Venezuela Collapses, Children Are Dying of Hunger For five months, The New York Times tracked 21 public hospitals in Venezuela. Doctors are seeing record numbers of children with severe malnutrition. Hundreds have died. The suffering of Venezuelan families is expected to worsen next year. Beyond the I.M.F.’s warning that inflation… Continue reading Venezuela’s Currency Continues To Collapse
The Economist – Seeking a soft landing: Will America’s economy overheat in 2018? The labor market is the healthiest it has been for at least a decade. But inflation remains low As politics has consumed America’s attention for the past two years, common complaints from earlier in the decade have, one by one, begun to look… Continue reading A Look At The Economy In 2018
The Wall Street Journal – An Oil Cartel’s Strange Dilemma: Prices Rising Too High OPEC struggles with idea of overheating the crude market OPEC is grappling with an unusual conundrum: Oil prices are going higher than it wants. A rise to $65 a barrel could undermine a fragile coalition of 24 oil-producing nations, led by the… Continue reading OPEC’s Catch 22 With Higher Prices
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