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Economists and Markets are Disbelievers in Inflation Ever Returning

December 20, 2017

Summary Economists and financial markets remain extremely confident in a low inflation and interest rate environment even while expecting improving economic growth. However, we show the differences in inflation forecasts based on financial market returns, economic data, and sentiment are growing wider. Historically, uncertainty has been priced in by bond investors via wider term premium… Continue reading Economists and Markets are Disbelievers in Inflation Ever Returning

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Yield Curve Inversion

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg View – Tim Duy: A Yield-Curve Inversion Isn’t a Done Deal Feeble inflation numbers would weaken the argument for continued rate hikes. The Federal Reserve reaffirmed its 2018 projected path of an additional three 25 basis-point rate hikes at this week’s Open Market Committee meeting. I wrote last week that the announcement set the stage for an inversion… Continue reading Yield Curve Inversion

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Emerging Markets

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg Business – The Party’s Not Over Yet for Emerging Markets’ Dream Rally Bonds and equities in developing countries will continue to streak ahead, outpacing their developed-nation peers into next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 20 investors, traders and strategists. Currencies, however, may struggle to stay in front. The survey was conducted Dec. 5-14.… Continue reading Emerging Markets

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Fund Managers Still Overweight Stocks

December 20, 2017

Business Insider – Fund managers are refusing to abandon stocks despite them being perceived as overvalued and a crowded trade Fund managers think that stocks are overvalued with positioning disproportionately long, creating the risk of a rush for the exits at some point in the future. However, despite those views, they continue to double down on… Continue reading Fund Managers Still Overweight Stocks

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Returns Of Active Bond Managers Highly Correlated to High Yield

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Active Bond Funds Juicing Returns With Junk Not Talent, AQR Says The skill of active fixed income managers may have been grossly overstated, according to new research from AQR Capital Management. While parabolic stock indexes create a hard foe for equity managers to beat, their peers in the fixed income world consistently surpass… Continue reading Returns Of Active Bond Managers Highly Correlated to High Yield

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Who Is Buying Treasuries?

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg Business – U.S. Treasury Sales Are About to Double 2018. Who’s Buying? If central banks step back, that could mean higher yields The Treasury said last month that it expects to unveil bigger coupon auctions in February for the first time since 2009, and dealers see issuance rising for years to come. With entitlement costs heading higher, the U.S.… Continue reading Who Is Buying Treasuries?

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Pipeline Outages And Closures Drive Oil Prices Up

December 20, 2017

The Wall Street Journal – Oil Gains as Pipeline Outage Continues Oil prices rose Tuesday, helped in part by the continuing outage of a North Sea pipeline and reports that Russia’s largest oil company could envision continuing production curbs past 2018. U.S. crude futures traded up 30 cents, or 0.52%, at $57.46 a barrel on the… Continue reading Pipeline Outages And Closures Drive Oil Prices Up

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Sweden Ends Its QE Program

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Swedish Riksbank Takes First Step Toward Exiting Record Stimulus Sweden’s central bank formally ended a program of bond purchases after almost three years, but pledged support for the nation’s debt market into 2019 in a step designed to ensure a smooth retreat from record stimulus. In the Stockholm-based Riksbank’s last meeting of 2017,… Continue reading Sweden Ends Its QE Program

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Bearish On Bonds

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg View – Scott Dorf: There’s a Bear Raid Underway in the Bond Market The economic picture has been brightening for some time, but it is the supply outlook that truly threatens Treasuries going forward. Year-end trading markets can be brutal if you’re stuck in a crowded position. Take the market for U.S. Treasuries, where THE… Continue reading Bearish On Bonds

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Stock Buybacks

December 20, 2017

Bloomberg Business – Buybacks and Dividends Giving money back to shareholders has become very popular among U.S. CEOs, and to a lesser extent around the world. In 2016, U.S. nonfinancial companies returned almost $1.3 trillion in the form of share repurchases and dividends. As a percentage of gross domestic product, that was among the largest payouts on record. The practice waned in 2017,… Continue reading Stock Buybacks

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Long Stock Market Advances Help Explain Other Bubbles

December 20, 2017

CNBC – The late-stage equity bull market could explain a mania like bitcoin Bitcoin’s meteoric surge this year comes as stocks rally and art is sold at a record high. Blame the stock market’s rally for the bitcoin craze that has swept financial markets these last few weeks. While debate rages over whether the digital currency is in… Continue reading Long Stock Market Advances Help Explain Other Bubbles

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Your Daily Dose Of Crytpo Mania

December 20, 2017

Business Insider – The cryptocurrency market is now doing the same daily volume as the New York Stock Exchange Global cryptocurrency markets are now averaging the same daily trading volumes as the New York Stock Exchange. 24-hour trade volume in the cryptocurrency market passed the $50 billion mark on Wednesday, according to data provider CoinMarketCap.com. That is… Continue reading Your Daily Dose Of Crytpo Mania

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