Newsclips
Dollar Falls Back to September Lows
January 16, 2018
The weaker dollar has been a boon for emerging market equities, especially those in the healthcare, materials, financials and energy industries.
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Earnings Update
January 16, 2018
View PDF Comment Last week (webcast, conference call) we noted that Q4 earnings expectations are very high. Through Friday only 26 of the S&P companies have reported, so it is still early days in the earnings season. The chart below shows an index of earnings guidance offered by companies. Its construction is noted on the… Continue reading Earnings Update
Newsclips
T-Bills Show Little Concern Over Government Shutdown Threat
January 16, 2018
The New York Times – As Shutdown Talk Rises, Trump’s Immigration Words Pose Risks for Both Parties President Trump’s incendiary words about immigration have dampened the prospects that a broad spending and immigration deal can be reached by the end of the week, raising the possibility of a government shutdown with unknown political consequences for… Continue reading T-Bills Show Little Concern Over Government Shutdown Threat
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Cryptocurrencies Take A Hit
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Uproar as South Korea Plans Cryptocurrency Crackdown Government attempts to tighten control over cryptocurrency trading are sparking a fierce public backlash in South Korea. A petition on the official website of South Korea’s presidential office had collected more than 200,000 signatures by Tuesday morning, hitting a threshold that would compel… Continue reading Cryptocurrencies Take A Hit
Newsclips
Barron’s Roundtable Is Bullish
January 16, 2018
Barron’s – Bright Outlook for the Economy and Stocks The members of Barron’s 2018 Roundtable arrived at our annual gathering in a jolly mood. And why not? U.S. stocks returned an impressive 20% last year, and are off to the races again this year, propelled by expectations of good economic growth and robust corporate earnings. Our panelists,… Continue reading Barron’s Roundtable Is Bullish
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Conference Call Transcript – Inflation, The Yield Curve and Earnings
January 16, 2018
View PDF Handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our conference call titled Inflation, the Yield Curve and Earnings on January 11, 2018. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). Audio replay can be heard below: Webinar replay below:
Newsclips
The Rally In Crude Oil
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Five Potential Risks to the Oil Rally As sentiment on oil has turned positive, hedge funds and other speculative investors have amassed a record number of long positions—bullish bets on oil. If sentiment sours, these investors could quickly unwind their positions, driving prices down. “The rally may have gone too far… Continue reading The Rally In Crude Oil
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CoT Webcasts for January 12, 2018
January 16, 2018
OPEN Commitment of Traders Analysis For January 12, 2018 On January 12, 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (CoT) statistics for Tuesday, January 9, 2018. Click on the open button above for some charts and a few short webcasts noting some the data we found interesting from our new interactive… Continue reading CoT Webcasts for January 12, 2018
Newsclips
A Bond Bear Market?
January 16, 2018
Barron’s – This Bond Bear Market Doesn’t Look Too Fierce Investors may be rattled, but falling prices probably won’t stop them from buying new Treasuries. The bond bear market has finally arrived, according to Bill Gross. The 73-year-old Pimco co-founder, who helped invent modern bond trading, tweeted on Jan. 9, “Bond bear market confirmed today,” citing… Continue reading A Bond Bear Market?
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Trump’s Approval Rating
January 16, 2018
The Wall Street Journal – Stock Market Roared During Donald Trump’s First Year, Boosted by Earnings and Tax Cut U.S. stock markets soared to records during President Donald Trump’s first year in office, benefiting from a mix of pro-business policies, steady corporate earnings and a rebound in global economic growth. The S&P 500 index has… Continue reading Trump’s Approval Rating
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More On Low Volatility
January 16, 2018
The Financial Times – Gavyn Davies: Ultra low market volatility – friend or foe? A pre-eminent question for 2018 is whether these low volatility levels are reflecting excessive complacency (and possibly extreme leverage) among investors. A sudden spike in vol, for whatever reason, would almost certainly be accompanied by a significant drop in risk asset… Continue reading More On Low Volatility
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Missing Bond Trading
January 16, 2018
The New York Times – What’s $27 Billion to Wall Street? An Alarming Drop in Revenue Twenty-seven billion dollars has gone missing on Wall Street. For more than a decade, the world’s top investment banks practically minted money from the buying and selling of bonds, currencies and other complex securities. For many banks, the business became… Continue reading Missing Bond Trading