The Bloomberg Treasury index is down -2.18% since the election and down -1.60% since the beginning of 2018. High yield is up 9% since the election and down -0.35% since the beginning of 2018. Use the interactive chart below to view additional total returns from the bond market.
Inflation and wage growth are showing nearly their largest contributions to U.S. Treasury yields since the financial crisis.
Barron’s – Even Junk Bonds Sailed Through the Stock Storm Unscathed Unlike the stock market, which has been rocked by episodes of volatility, the corporate credit market has been mostly insulated. Even high-yield bonds, which tend to follow equities more than the Treasury sector, have been mostly unscathed. So far, there are no glaring signs that… Continue reading High Yield Energy Stumbles After Fast Start to 2018
Short volatility ETFs have made investors so much money since their inception that a 100% decline in prices still leaves the concept as a profitable idea over the long haul. Long volatility ETFs remain one of the worst-performing ETFs in history despite this week’s price action.
Finanz und Wirtshcaft – Investors should be careful what they wish for James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, thinks that a return of inflation will force central banks to accelerate their exit strategy and warns that financial markets won’t like it. Wall Street is rattled. This week, the long-running stock rally turned into a rout. On… Continue reading More On Inflation: Be Careful What You Wish For
The New York Times – The Era of Easy Money Is Ending, and the World Is Bracing for Shocks Mere days ago, in what feels like a different era now, the biggest thing that people in control of money appeared to fear was complacency. Stock markets in the United States were surging, enthralled by the regulation-slashing,… Continue reading The Era of Accommodative Central Bank Policy Is Ending
Bloomberg Business – U.S. Crude Output to Jump Above 11 Million Barrels a Day Sooner Than Expected The U.S. government sees nationwide oil production jumping above 11 million barrels a day much quicker than anticipated. After oil output already topped 10 million barrels a day back in November, output will climb above the 11 million mark this November,… Continue reading US Crude Oil Production Set To Rise
Bloomberg View – Ben Carlson: These Kinds of Stock-Market Losses Aren’t That Unusual Daily dips of 2 percent or worse occur a little more than five times a year, on average. This means that daily losses of 2 percent or worse occur a little more than five times a year, on average. But anyone who… Continue reading Market Streaks
The Wall Street Journal – Treasury Secretary Tries to Ease Concern Over Stock Market Fall Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday tried to dampen concerns over the recent stock market fall, which he said was not tied to any issues of financial stability and didn’t overly concern him. “I think the fundamentals are quite strong,” he… Continue reading Munchin: Underlying Economic Fundamentals Are Strong
Bloomberg Businessweek – With Yellen Out of the Picture, Get Ready for Trump vs. Powell President Trump can’t brush off stocks’ plunge after repeatedly citing their rise as a validation of his presidency. He bragged (correctly) in his State of the Union address on Jan. 30 that “the stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion in… Continue reading Trump vs Powell
MarketWatch – John Mauldin: How the Federal Reserve will throttle stocks into 2019 The central bank is both raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet by $1 trillion Our Federal Reserve leaders believe keeping inflation under control is their key mission. Fair enough. The problem is that inflation is not now a threat, yet they… Continue reading The Fed and “Quantitative Tightening”
Bloomberg Business – World’s Largest ETF Hit by Biggest Four-Day Outflow on Record The global market maelstrom spurred money managers to yank a record $17.4 billion from the mighty SPDR S&P 500 ETF over the past four trading sessions. The $8 billion removed on Tuesday alone was the third-largest daily withdrawal in the post-crisis era. The… Continue reading World’s Largest ETF Sees Massive Outflow