The chart above shows 10-year TIPS breakevens hit a short-term bottom on June 20, 2017. Since then inflation concerns have become much more pronounced. So how have equities performed over this period? The DJIA is up 18.78% since TIPS breakevens bottomed while the S&P 500 is up 12.91%. Despite the recent volatility in stocks, the… Continue reading Stock Total Returns Since TIPS Bottomed On June 20, 2017
The Bloomberg Treasury index is down -2.42% since TIPS breakevens bottomed on June 20, 2017. High yield is up 2.14% since TIPS breakevens bottomed. Use the interactive chart below to view additional total returns from the bond market.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 7.68% since June 20, 2017. The Bloomberg gold subindex is down 1.29%, while silver and platinum are down 25% and 33%, respectively, since TIPS breakevens bottomed. Use the interactive chart below to view additional returns.
All asset classes have seen risk-adjusted returns diminish in February 2018.
Bloomberg – U.S. Floods Market With $179 Billion of Debt in Just One Day Three- and six-month bills sold at levels unseen since 2008 The government auctioned $51 billion of three-month bills at a yield of 1.64 percent, 6 basis points more than similar-tenor notes sold on Feb. 12, while $45 billion of six-month debt yielded… Continue reading The Coming Wave of Treasury Supply
Bloomberg View – Tim Duy: The Fed Will Stick to Its 3-Hike Plan — for Now The central bank will stay the course as long as it remains confident the projected path will yield 2 percent inflation. Predictions of four Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year are on the rise. But the central bank has two… Continue reading Rate Hikes In 2018
The New York Times – Neil Irwin: The Economy Is Getting Hotter. Is a Productivity Boom Next? The latest wrinkle is that the researchers now believe that productivity growth depends not just on the supply side of the economy — what companies produce and what technologies they use to do it — but also significantly on… Continue reading Will Productivity Increase?
View PDF The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our February 15, 2018 conference call titled The Surge In Volatility: A Derivatives Debacle Or The Beginning Of A Regime Shift? can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The audio replay can be heard below: The webinar… Continue reading Conference Call Transcript – The Surge In Volatility: A Derivatives Debacle Or The Beginning Of A Regime Shift?
Bloomberg Business – Market’s Red Line for Yields Isn’t Where Most People Think Stocks will rise with yields until rates reach 3.5%, CS says Among the myriad theories for the violent correction in equities two weeks ago, one of the most prominent was a spike in Treasury yields toward the dreaded 3 percent level. It’s wrong, according to… Continue reading What A 3% Treasury Yield Means For Investors
The Wall Street Journal – Household Debt Sees Quiet Boom Across the Globe A decade after the global financial crisis, household debts are considered by many to be a problem of the past after having come down in the U.S., U.K. and many parts of the euro area. But in some corners of the globe—including… Continue reading Debt To GDP Across The Globe
The Wall Street Journal – Greg Ip: America’s Emerging Petro Economy Flips the Impact of Oil The effect of oil prices on the U.S. economy used to be straightforward: Higher was bad. Yet between 2014 and early 2016, as oil collapsed, growth slowed sharply. Since then oil has doubled, yet the economy has accelerated. Credit this to… Continue reading How The US Oil Economy Impacts Oil
Bloomberg Business – As Stock Jitters Recede, Focus Shifts to Surging Company Profits A stream of rosy profit reports has helped soothe the nerves of investors rattled by this month’s stock market plunge. U.S. companies are seeing the biggest growth spurt in quarterly earnings in six years, and the pace is set to accelerate. The question now is… Continue reading Corporate Profits Rise