The number of economies leading positive economic growth has tended to grow high during the end of cycles. All in all, volatility is likely to remain high and central banks may be dismayed assuming inflation does not rise as hoped.
Regional banks are riding high on expectations for higher rates and lower taxes. Defensive sectors like utilities are out of favor.
Today's topics include effective corporate tax rates, dovish Fedspeak, S&P dividend yields, the LIBOR/OIS spread and OPEC's production cuts.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields should stress 'zombie' companies subsist on low borrowing costs. Distressed securities and high yield credit should become quite opportunistic for active management.
Agricultural commodities still point to 3+% global growth, but keep an eye on industrial metals' response to trade tensions.
Payrolls beat even the most optimistic estimates in February, but wage growth remains subdued.
A look at the Q4 2017 Flow of Funds report.
Topics include the stock bull market, Berkshire Hathaway, ECB stimulus, import tariffs, wages, the Federal Reserve and predicting recessions.
Less than 50% of the world's economies are now producing economic data surprises. Realized economic data following suit in the months to come would remove the tailwind of 'concerted economic growth' for risk assets and central banks. Emerging markets may be first on the list to experience higher volatility.
Risk-adjusted returns produced by municipal bonds over the past year are now in line with the S&P 500 and U.S. high yield. Municipal bonds have often provided the top risk-adjusted returns post-crisis.