Tighter financial conditions are finally on their way after a long period of central bank stimulus. High yield has yet to reflect increased risks, but the heightened number of so-called zombie companies demands attention.
Four short webcasts detailing the March 16, 2018 Commitment of Traders report.
Topics include stock market valuations, the Phillips curve, U.S. crude oil exports, hedge fund performance, Jeffrey Gundlach, cryptocurrencies and the new PBoC chief.
Originally posted on February 14, 2018. Sign up for a free trial at the bottom of this page to read our current research. Bloomberg – Credit Markets Are Stuck Playing Game of Dealers’ Choice Willingness to buy debt ‘clearly being tested,’ BofA Says In credit markets, it’s dealers’ choice — for now. That means credit spreads are… Continue reading Worries About Bond Market Liquidity
China is expected to remain a buyer of U.S. Treasuries, which tends to occur with a strong U.S. consumer and rising yields. In other words, China's purchases are not a reason to get bullish on U.S. Treasuries.
Policy headwinds keep piling up for pipeline companies. Despite a known boom in petroleum supply to transport, pipeline assets have languished. The one-two punch of steel tariffs and now a significant change in tax treatment has further dented sentiment.
The U.S. economic cycle has yet to show major cracks or signs of impending recession. But, the pace of rate hikes expected by the Federal Reserve is not yet squaring with realized inflation. Municipal bonds looks primed to rebound in the event inflation fears continue to abate.
The Phillips curve is dead...or is it?
Today's topics include the WSJ economist survey, stock and bond market sentiment, rising yields, the British pound, banks and the greed-fear cycle.
The FOMC and ECB are again on seemingly divergent paths. Sprinkling in increased hedging costs and fiscal spending results in a very difficult to determine outlook for U.S. Treasury yields. History suggests widening expectations for growth and inflation should give rise to term premium into this summer.