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U.S. Economic Data – Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop?
March 27, 2018
Eurozone economic data have made a swift turn to missing expectations, heightening the potential for the U.S. to follow suit. Any revivals in the spread between U.S. and German inflation expectations should be short-lived. The U.S. has built significantly more inflation premium into nominal yields, meaning greater risk in the event realized inflation is a bust.
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Trade Tensions a Sideshow for Slowing Global Growth
March 27, 2018
The main act for global markets is the potential end of concerted economic growth.
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Webcast – What’s Next with Crude Oil Back Above $65
March 27, 2018
Peter Forbes discusses his recent post, "What’s Next with Crude Oil Back Above $65."
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What We’re Reading
March 27, 2018
Today's topics include employment and Fed policy, the trade war, bond bears, the yuan, market volatility and Chinese Treasury holdings.
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Cartoons
March 27, 2018
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UST and S&P 500 Volatility Have Completely Disconnected
March 26, 2018
U.S. Treasury and S&P 500 volatility have completely disconnected, indicating fears are not aligned between safe and risk assets. U.S. Treasury volatility will remain low until core inflation makes a clear shift toward the Fed's target of 2.0%. Slowing economic growth is becoming a headwind to this goal.
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A Bullish Signal For Silver?
March 26, 2018
Silver speculators currently hold their largest net short position since data began being collected in 1995.
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Webcast: Inflation – It’s Time to ‘Put Up or Shut Up’
March 26, 2018
Ben Breitholtz discusses his recent post, Inflation – It’s Time to ‘Put Up or Shut Up.
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CoT Webcasts For March 23, 2018
March 26, 2018
Three short webcasts detailing the March 23, 2018 Commitment of Traders report.
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What We’re Reading
March 26, 2018
Today's topics include LIBOR, Chinese purchases of Treasuries, deregulation, bearish stories, the economy vs. politics, high frequency trading, JGB volume, Neel Kashkari, Berkshire 401ks, the next NY Fed President and GDP-linked bonds.