Charts of the Week
Now vs. Then – Breaking Down Sovereign Debt Ranges
April 11, 2018
In February we broke down global sovereign debt into interest rate buckets. That prompted inquiries about how the same chart looked when rates were at their lows.
In February we broke down global sovereign debt into interest rate buckets. That prompted inquiries about how the same chart looked when rates were at their lows.
Macro products make up roughly 77% of the CBOE's volume.
An update of our world GDP estimate as explained by commodities
As the Japanese government drove JGB rates to zero, volume all but disappeared.
An update of the political landscape as the midterm elections draw closer
The U.S. two-year note remains above S&P 500 dividend yields.
Stock total returns since the 2016 election
A look at fixed income total returns since the election
Commodity total returns since the election
A long-term look at crude oil prices and U.S. field production
Another day, another survey extremely optimistic inflation and wages will rise in the near-term. Unfortunately, these very surveys detached from reality in the mid-1990s. U.S. 10-year note yields have chased these expectations higher, but bond investors are now in 'wait and see' mode. Inflation failing to rise will likely keep a cap on yields, meaning do not expect 10-years to break the much-discussed 3.0%.
Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans have put Brazilian exports in focus. Logistical constraints will limit the near-term upside, but the boost comes at a welcome time for emerging markets.