Newsclips
Bank of Canada Sets Stage for Summer Rate Hike
May 2, 2018
Stabilization in Canadian economic growth and rising inflation are likely to see the Bank of Canada raising interest rates along with the Fed this summer.
Stabilization in Canadian economic growth and rising inflation are likely to see the Bank of Canada raising interest rates along with the Fed this summer.
Monthly fund flows through March 31, 2018.
Stock and bond total returns through April 2018.
Today's topics include global 10-year yields, strong earnings, higher inflation and Fed policy, markets relying on central banks, slowing productivity, Eurozone growth and global volatility.
The consumer appears mostly healthy, but still reluctant to make big ticket purchases. Credit card debt is rising, but not out of line with historical standards. Some warts regarding wages keeps our focus on non-cyclical, defensive sectors. Additionally, long-end U.S. Treasury yields will likely struggle to rise until these warts are removed.
Consumer staples ETFs are now the worst performing sector funds over the past 12 months. The outlook is brightening for parts of the sector though. Relief from rising interest rates may be a catalyst for outperformance.
China is more dependent on its trade relationship with the US than the US is with China. The Chinese economy needs to reinvest its trade money back into dollar assets more than the US needs the money.
Today's topics include Treasury borrowing, concern about the Fed, tech on Wall Street, the VIX, big data, the correlation between stocks and bonds, $300 oil, the BoE rate hike, the economic expansion, tariffs, the labor market and the bond bear market.
Anyone believing the U.S. 10-year note yield hitting 3.0% or core inflation reaching the Fed's target of 2.0% would induce higher U.S. Treasury volatility is thus far sadly mistaken. Monetary policy uncertainty across major central banks is near post-crisis lows, especially with the ECB and BoJ months away from discussing their own exit from quantitative easing.
Traders know this is a non-presser meeting, but the fact that the odds of a hike are still 35% show many believe a hike would be prudent. We wouldn't go so far as expecting a hike, but if the Fed ever wanted to make a move at a non-presser meeting, the markets may be giving them enough leeway to do so.