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CoT Commentary: Institutional Positioning Across the Curve
July 8, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 8, 2025
Today's topics include mid-year update on the Bianco Research Fixed-Income Total Return Index, what to expect now that the debt ceiling has been lifted, Dudley pours cold water on administration's attempts to lower rates, tariff headlines, Powell's potential replacements, volatile sentiment swings, are markets too complacent?, the odds of rates returning to zero, and a history of Fannie & Freddie conservatorship
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 8, 2025
Conference Calls
Rate Cuts, the Politicization of the Fed, and Population Growth
July 7, 2025
Trump has been very vocal in calling for Powell to cut rates immediately, but what might happen if the Fed caves to his wishes? The answer would depend on the state of the economy. On that front, population growth and its implications for the labor market must be considered.
Newsclips
Is Population Growth Now More Important Than Job Growth?
July 7, 2025
Since the U.S. border was closed to undocumented immigration earlier this year, net immigration has abruptly slowed. This has slowed population growth, meaning the U.S. might only need as few as 10,000 jobs per month by 2026 to cover new entrants in the labor force. So, private sector job growth slowing to 74k, as it did in June, might be more than enough to keep up with population growth.
Newsclips
Q2 2025 Earnings Preview
July 7, 2025
Q2 2025 earnings season begins this week. Growth expectations are low at just 2.79%. It remains to be seen if Q2 can outpace Q1 2025's strong growth level of 13.57%.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 7, 2025
Today's topics include Wednesday's trade deadline, changing relationships in currency markets, quantifying uncertainty, government borrowing, where are the equity market vigilantes?, the retail crowd loves to speculate, and the state of the housing market
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 7, 2025
Focused Research
Employment in Pictures – Where’s the Slowdown in the Labor Market?
July 3, 2025
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 147k jobs in June, well above economists' median estimate. The data continues to allow the Fed to kick the can down the road on potential rate cuts.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 3, 2025
Today's topics include bond yields, bond auctions, the race to replace Powell, the strong euro, what AI means for jobs, an independent Fed, and will banks issue stablecoins?