Newsclips
Gold Losing its Luster
June 6, 2018
Consumer and investor interest in gold continued to fall over the past month. Net outflows from physical gold ETFs are accelerating and the outlook for the precious metal looks precarious.
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What We’re Reading
June 6, 2018
Today's topics include the ECB, the yield curve and the 1969 recession, junk bonds, the end of world fund, rising crude oil and hedge fund performance, ESG investing, rising real yields, Italy, millennials, MBA students choosing tech over finance and how one company made its janitors millionaires.
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Cartoons
June 6, 2018
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Jim’s View: Why and How The Curve Inverts
June 5, 2018
We have voiced our concerns that the Fed may be hiking in the face of higher inflation expectations without any actual inflation materializing. This type of action often leads to an inverted curve and recession. Today we examine previous instances when this has happened.
Newsclips
Consumer Anxiety Low, but Spending and Credit Trends Slowing
June 5, 2018
Consumer searches (Google) indicate low anxiety, but deteriorating spending, credit, and business formation. Our nowcast for Q2 GDP resides at 3.12% year-over-year, below similar forecasts by the Atlanta and New York Fed.
Newsclips
Will Volcker Rule Rollback Save Financials?
June 5, 2018
Many are hoping the roll-back of the Volcker rule will provide the financial sector with a much-needed boost. It may have much wider implications.
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What We’re Reading
June 5, 2018
Today's topics include Canada, fund managers moving to Florida, crude oil production, all or nothing markets, hedge fund secrecy and the peso.
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Cartoons
June 5, 2018
Newsclips
U.S. Real Yields Stuck at Range Highs, Blame Slowing Global Growth
June 4, 2018
Blame slowing global growth for still low U.S. Treasury term premium and real yields. The U.S. may be growing at a moderately strong rate, but economists and bond investors are still very hesitant to join the chorus of optimism found within nearly all survey output. Longer-end yields should struggle to rise until these concerns erode.
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Oversupply Discount Spreads to Cushing
June 4, 2018
Oversupply concerns and shrinking geopolitical risk premiums have taken crude oil off its highs. Signs of weakening demand point to more downside risk for oil prices.
Newsclips
Earnings Update: The Best Guidance Ever?
June 4, 2018
Rarely, if ever, have we seen better earnings results, forecasts and guidance. Despite this, stocks have struggled to stay in positive return territory this year. Simply put, these earnings results were already priced into the market.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
June 4, 2018
Today's topics include the jobs market, beating an index, loose financial conditions, lunch with Buffett, alternative data, the global growth slowdown, risk premia, credit lending and emerging markets.