Today's topics include the Fed's stress tests, the effects of QT, energy independence in the U.S., challenging conventional wisdom on junk bonds, Greenspan comments on the yield curve, record M&A and corporate debt's slow start in 2018.
WTI's punch above $70 is not yet expected to harm the consumer or economy. We use the relationship between realized inflation and consumer expectations to determine this pain threshold.
The drop in the yuan has triggered another round of selling in emerging markets. Slowing growth is a real concern but Latin American emerging markets remain in a position to outperform their southeast Asian peers.
How does one live in a country with a worthless currency?
Today's topics include China, the costs of trade wars, Powell's reduced reliance on models, signs of inflation, Europe's neutral rate, bitcoin and Goldman's Soccerbot 3000.
Despite small business optimism, Google search traffic indicates declining activity in small business formation and borrowing.
Household debt and credit is broken down by auto loans, credit cards, HELOCs, student loans and mortgages.
Credit card companies are extending more credit in the U.S., but consumers are being more prudent in their use of credit cards.
Since the housing crash, mortgage originators have lent far less money to people with the riskiest credit scores.
Outflows from gold ETFs have persisted since our last update.