Risks across asset classes are again aligning with U.S. Treasury volatility, meaning diversification will be difficult heading into the fall of 2018. The ECB, not recent talk of tightening by the BoJ, remains the world's most influential player. We continue to believe the ECB will have the right conditions for a 2019 hike as economic data rebounds.
A cool housing market and hot temperatures are driving outperformance for home improvement retailers.
Through Friday 87 of the S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 2018 results. Earnings and revenue estimates are still strong and guidance is near all-time highs.
With only four days left before the BEA's official release of Q2 GDP, the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed have very different estimates.
Today's topics include the PBOJ and BOJ central banks, small caps, betting against metals, quant funds, previewing the FOMC meeting, bond market liquidity, ETFs eating active management, the derivatives market and crude oil supply.
Potential for slowing capex is an underappreciated concern. Slowing search activity, falling emerging market currencies, and waning soft data are likely headwinds to a strong streak of capex. We detail which U.S. industries are most susceptible to shifting spending.
Bond managers and traders are painfully aware of the near-record low volatility in the bond market. Measures of bond market leverage are also at near-record lows, likely driven by the same factors.
Financial markets' reaction to the sharp yuan weakness is surprisingly sleepy, even for mid-summer. Will a return to the highs for USDCNY wake them up?
Global central bank tightening is underway with emerging economies joining developed central banks.
Today's topics include tariffs, fees in investment management, emerging markets, European banks, Trump critiques the Fed, the problem with pensions, quant fund performance, FAANMG love and bearish narratives in the markets.