The strong belief that inflation is returning is driving Fed policy. They are not waiting for the actual data to hit their targets and are moving ahead without it. They better be correct as this is how mistakes are made.
The housing market is looking increasingly shaky. Search interest in home financing has fallen to its lowest level since July 2015.
Today's topics include Turkey, quantitative tightening, capex, US stocks vs. foreign stocks, household debt rises, overnight repo, bond traders and the Fed, the falling euro, stock buybacks, corporate debt, job automation and the democratization of information.
Gold is declining after very favorable influences have driven the U.S. dollar higher. U.S. economic growth, inflation, and sovereign yields are top dog among developed economies, which makes the U.S. dollar the safe haven of choice. Gold does not rally with financial stress, but when the U.S. dollar becomes unattractive.
Expectations for retail sales gains in 2018 are high and rising but outperformance is narrowly concentrated in a small slice of retail equities. U.S. search trends point to travel & recreation and home improvement as the two areas likely to sustain solid returns.
Today's topics include emerging markets, the Indian rupee, Chinese debt, the cost of the financial crisis, deposit rates, Camp Kotok, Chinese growth, cryptocurrencies, US stocks and sports investing.
Turkey woes are failing to show signs of contagion or elevating global risk. Opportunities will likely exist when systemic risk premiums eventually subside.
Soybean farmers face a dual threat of lost export demand and a record crop. But the political danger for Republicans may have passed as search interest in tariffs has shifted away from agriculturally focused swing states.
Q2 2018 has proven to be another spectacular quarter for earnings, revenues and company guidance. Markets are forward-looking, so these results were probably discounted in the huge stock market rally into January 2018.
An interactive visualization of the latest CPI, PPI and PCE reports