Newsclips
Will Emerging Markets Turn Into A Crisis?
September 5, 2018
While emerging markets' struggles continue, the risk to the U.S. remains small.
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U.S. Hard Data Nearly the Least Volatile in History
September 5, 2018
Being an economist in the U.S. these days is tough business with ultra-low volatility across economic data releases and a transparent Federal Reserve. If you are wondering why investors are so bored, the answer is U.S. hard economic data's volatility plumbing its lowest since September 1995. Past occasions have seen the S&P 500 go on to produce low volatile, positive returns.
Newsclips
Persistent Chill for U.S. Housing Market
September 5, 2018
Google search trends suggest the U.S. housing market continues to soften. Home improvement retail is likely to remain a bright spot in an otherwise dark housing-related investing landscape.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
September 5, 2018
Today's topics include the U.S. dollar, the economy and midterm elections, stocks and midterm elections, trade wars, Bullard, zero-fee funds, beware of the Q trap, "the great liquidity crisis", monopolies and a semi-annual earnings season.
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Cartoons
September 5, 2018
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Will the Federal Reserve Go It Alone?
September 4, 2018
A lack of rebound in inflation expectations would mean the Fed is 'going it alone' with more hikes in 2019. The de facto Fed chair has been inflation expectations in 2017 and 2018. Will the great showdown between markets and the Fed take place or will one side finally have to give?
Newsclips
Small Cap Fever Ready to Break?
September 4, 2018
Small caps enjoyed another wave of investor interest in August, but have tended to underperform after tight range trades in Treasury yields.
Monthly Reports
Total Return Review – The Dollar’s Effect On Global Stock Returns
September 4, 2018
The dollar's rally since the trade war started has created divergences in the returns of some of the major stock indices. However, in local currency terms, stocks outside the U.S. have managed to hang in there with their U.S. counterparts.
Monthly Reports
Monthly Fund Flows – Detailing Active and Passive Flows
September 4, 2018
Fund flows through July 2018.
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What We’re Reading
September 4, 2018
Today's topics include the yield curve, algos, fixing banking, bullish surveys, opposing views of the economy, China, the future of money management, Lehman 10 years later and seasonality.
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 4, 2018
H/T Jason Zweig
Newsclips
Tight Yield Ranges and Flat Curve Not Good Omen for Equities
August 31, 2018
The U.S. 10-year note's ultra-tight trading range coupled with a flattening yield curve is a recipe for higher dispersion and equity underperformance relative to U.S. Treasuries.