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Will the Fed Stick to Long-run Neutral Rate of 3.0%?
September 10, 2018
Further tightening in 2019 will begin to rein in financial leverage, but run the risk of impairing credit and lending growth.
Newsclips
Oil Prices – Calm on the Surface
September 10, 2018
Stability in oil prices belies shifts in both U.S. shale and global supplies. U.S. shale is shifting northward as the Permian Basin sees persistent oversupply discounts. Changes in production for at-risk nations offset - for now.
Newsclips
Fixed Income ETFs, Passive Still Rules
September 10, 2018
Fund managers are betting the public wants more active and smart beta fixed income ETFs as opposed to passive ETFs. Flows suggest the preference still lies with the passive ETFs.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
September 10, 2018
Today's topics include Italian bonds, Trump & stocks, looking for signs from the Fed, reaching for yield with munis, the anniversary of the crisis, studying boom and bust cycles, QE killed CTAs, U.S. stocks vs. the world, the midterm elections, comparing the economy to the 1990s, roboadvisers and simplifying the Volcker Rule.
Newsclips
Cartoons
September 10, 2018
Newsclips
U.S. 10-Year Note Set to Cheapen on Curve
September 7, 2018
Rate hike timing for the Federal Reserve will remain elevated given strong wage gains and overall U.S. economy. However a closing gap between economic performance of the U.S. and other developed economies suggest U.S. 10-year notes will finally cheapen on the curve.
Newsclips
Is Fed Policy Becoming Less Predictable or Changing Focus?
September 7, 2018
Tim Duy is making the case that Powell's decreased reliance on econometric models has made the Fed less predictable. We simply see the Fed pivoting to an increased focus on inflation.
Newsclips
Australia Stalling as Trade Tensions Ratchet Higher
September 7, 2018
Tighter ties to emerging economies in Southeast Asia have been the thorn in the Australian dollar's side since May. The case for a bounce is wanting.
Monthly Reports
Employment In Pictures – Wage Growth Improves Odds Of December FOMC Hike
September 7, 2018
Wage growth hit its highest level since May 2009, improving the odds of a December FOMC hike.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
September 7, 2018
Today's topics include Fed policy, the yield curve and rate hikes, UBS is worried about tariffs, the dollar, emerging markets, eurozone growth, productivity rises, the next financial crisis and JP Morgan's guide to the markets.