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Core Inflation Pulling Back, Fed’s Hawkish Bent Put to the Test
October 1, 2018
Core inflation is rolling over while inflation expectations refuse to break out to new heights. The Federal Reserve's hopes for further tightening through 2019 and possibly 2020 will be put to the test assuming core inflation and wage growth remain stuck near targets.
Newsclips
Clear Skies for Leveraged Loans
October 1, 2018
A combination of performance-fueled demand and tighter supplies paint a favorable picture for leveraged loans. Financial conditions remain benign.
Newsclips
Midterm Update – The Kavanaugh Story Continues
October 1, 2018
The Kavanaugh confirmation continues to play out in Washing and, we believe, will be a factor in the midterm election.
Monthly Reports
Total Return Review – October and November Have Not Been Kind to Commodities
October 1, 2018
The months of October and November have proven to be a poor period to own many popular commodities on a total return basis.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
October 1, 2018
Today's topics include the neutral funds rate, central banks' ability to fight future recessions, active management's underperformance, the yield curve, U.S. stocks diverging from global stocks, economists see recession, bond vigilantes and the quant world cup.
Newsclips
Cartoons
October 1, 2018
Newsclips
U.S. High Yield Says “Pffft” to Global Financial Stress
September 28, 2018
U.S. high yield has lost all connection to global financial stress, continuing a streak of stable positive returns. But, investors may be taking notice of this strange disconnection, steering assets instead to large cap equities and long-end Treasuries.
Newsclips
Fading Trade Anxiety Could Boost Autos
September 28, 2018
The model uses Google search trends for key policy terms to gauge uncertainty over issues like trade policy. Anxiety over the trade wars remains elevated but lower than six months ago. Conditions may be ripe for some relief for the auto sector.
Newsclips
More On The Event That Will Turn The Midterms
September 28, 2018
Events in Washington yesterday will be a factor in the midterm elections. Given our polarized nature, the Kavanaugh hearing will only influence a small percentage of voters. These voters will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
September 28, 2018
Today's topics include the crisis in Italy, Q3 2018 GDP forecasts, all about the Federal Reserve, the markets and the Federal Reserve, recession talk, replacing LIBOR, Global M&A, Hank Paulson discusses the trade war and the SEC sues Elon Musk.