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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 11, 2025
Today's topics include America has a construction problem, not an interest rate problem, on the Fed's balance sheet, how many cuts are coming?, volatility measures looking through the noise, immigration & the labor force, rising oil supply, how is China reacting to tariffs?, and Bitcoin's rally
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 11, 2025
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 10, 2025
Today's topics include a Fed divided, Fed politics, the legality of Bessent being both Treasury secretary & Fed chair at same time, real wages, small businesses feeling pain of trade war, Red Sea attacks, and quantifying wealth by generation
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 10, 2025
Newsclips
Rise of the Retail Trader Part II: In the Drivers Seat
July 9, 2025
Retail investors have become a dominant market force and have successfully piled into equity markets this year despite professional money managers' uncertainty. How are these retail investors trading?
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 9, 2025
Today's topics include immigration's effect on GDP & inflation, the Treasury gives some guidance on the TGA rebuild, see you in 2027 for the next debt ceiling debates, behind the scenes in the trade war, the next Fed chair, quantifying tariff revenue, fiscal issues, and the problems with a stronger currency
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 9, 2025
Focused Research
CoT Commentary: Institutional Positioning Across the Curve
July 8, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report allows investors to gauge position changes for different groups of traders/investors.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 8, 2025
Today's topics include mid-year update on the Bianco Research Fixed-Income Total Return Index, what to expect now that the debt ceiling has been lifted, Dudley pours cold water on administration's attempts to lower rates, tariff headlines, Powell's potential replacements, volatile sentiment swings, are markets too complacent?, the odds of rates returning to zero, and a history of Fannie & Freddie conservatorship
Newsclips
Cartoons
July 8, 2025
Conference Calls
Rate Cuts, the Politicization of the Fed, and Population Growth
July 7, 2025
Trump has been very vocal in calling for Powell to cut rates immediately, but what might happen if the Fed caves to his wishes? The answer would depend on the state of the economy. On that front, population growth and its implications for the labor market must be considered.