Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane Wednesday. Florida landfalls, consistent with major hurricanes broadly, have tended to boost oil prices over the following week.
Today's topics include the market selloff, the economy, the next recession, the corporate bond market, massive bond ETF outflows, signs of a tightening labor market and FANGs.
A replay of our October 11, 2018 conference call.
U.S. inflation expectations and Treasury implied volatility are once again seeing positive correlation. Past instances when inflation impacts volatility have favored modestly wider U.S. 10-year TIPS breakevens and steeper U.S. 2-year 10-year spread, but these moves are limited to the first month.
Global equities, industrial metals, and the U.S. dollar are increasingly tied to each other. Their collective fate will depend on China's ability to boost growth.
Today's topics include the stock/bond relationship, the yield curve, the bond market selloff, tech stocks and Treasury yields, tech stocks dominating the market, rate hikes, Trumponomics, the bull market and commodity-index investing.
Comment Jim Bianco will be presenting the following material later today at the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer Conference in New York. View PDF
U.S. Treasury volatility is beginning to rebound, but will fall flat unless inflation expectations break above the best levels of 2017. We identify those developed and emerging market sovereigns most sensitive to rising U.S. 10-year yields.
Consumer interest in credit card debt continues to decline. We expect insurance stocks to underperform as higher sovereign yields boost banks and diversified financials.
Today's topics include the bond market, Q3 2018 earnings, increasing volatility, the yuan, the ever-changing mutual fund industry and the future of crude oil.